In the Northern Hemisphere, the days are getting shorter and temperatures will gradually begin to drop. The hemispheric baric configuration is undergoing profound changes, clearly orienting itself towards the typical autumn patterns. To some it may seem strange, but in order to understand what will happen in Europe we must also take a look at what is happening on the other side of the Atlantic: in the USA.
We are currently in the presence of a positive NAO model, which is causing record heat conditions also in many areas of central and northern Europe. On the other hand, we find the presence of a deep depression in eastern Canada, extending to the eastern United States. The trajectory of the Atlantic hurricane Teddy should not be underestimated, which is starting to curve north following the edge of the High Pressure.
In just 4-5 days we will have a profound change. Hurricane Teddy is expected to hit the ground in the north-east of the United States or in eastern Canada (we will know more in a few days), but what is certain is that it will have a heavy influence on the entire eastern belt.
Not only that, the models predict the appearance of a powerful anticyclone over much of the United States and in the eastern Canadian sectors. In relation to this anticyclonic structure, a strong depression area will take shape between the North Atlantic and the Arctic Circle. This will result in a temporary, vigorous change in the European baric configuration that will put an end to the exceptional heat wave.
The expected thermal anomalies tell us that a much colder than normal air mass will be thrown over Central Western Europe and the Mediterranean, accompanied by a sharp cold front. The great heat, probably exceptional, will shift eastwards, reaching much of western Russia.
Looking further ahead, in the first days of October the so-called “dipole”Could persist: cool and unstable over most of Europe, hot over western Russia. Among other things, towards the end of the forecast period (15 days) an anticyclonic blockade could develop in the North Atlantic, or we could see a transition from neutral to negative NAO. This means bad weather could continue to dominate much of the old continent, probably as far as the Mediterranean and probably with temperatures below the seasonal average.
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