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Nobody has the truth in their pockets in these US elections. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will spend this last week before the vote beating the swing states far and wide, where there is a head-to-head between the two candidates. Polls follow one another, Harris seems to be leading by one point nationally, but it’s not that vote that counts. It’s crazy if you dive into the percentages of expected votes of ethnic groups, of counties, of white men and of color, of women. As I wrote yesterday, women will determine the election of the next president, because they are the numerically largest group, 53% of the electorate, white women in particular are 30%. It’s not certain they will vote for Kamala Harris anyway. Then there is the uncertainty about the vote of Arab Americans and Muslims furious with the Biden administration for the ongoing genocide in Gaza and for how the conflict between Israel and Hamas has been managed. Michigan, one of the swing states, has the largest presence of Muslim and Arab voters who may not go to vote or choose a protest vote with the third Green candidate Jill Stein. The only thing that is certain is that a handful of votes in one of the seven swing states will decide who will go to the White House. We most likely won’t know on election night, because vote counting rules vary from state to state. We are now at almost 70 million Americans who have already voted by mail and with early voting. More than half of those eligible. It will take time to check the regularity of the votes and for months Trump has been warning about the risk of fraud to electrify his electorate. There are fears of unrest and it is incredible that this is the climate in the largest democracy in the world. Our thoughts turn to January 6, 2021 when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol. The verbal clash in recent days has become even more violent and has also involved Republican Liz Cheney, daughter of Bush’s former vice president, Dick Cheney, who has sided with Kamala Harris. Trump called her a stupid warmonger who should be held up with guns to see how she reacts, she said, forcing the Arizona Department of Justice to open an investigation into whether it was a death threat. Trump is nervous and the images of him simulating a sexual act with a malfunctioning microphone, taking it out on the audio technicians, have made the rounds on social media. Meanwhile, the New York Times, unlike the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times which chose to remain neutral, sided with Kamala Harris. It did so with a short editorial in which it harshly criticized Trump. “He is unfit to lead the country, he is a threat to democracy, a liar without limits” are just some of the newspaper’s harsh accusations against the billionaire.
