The reality is that the national economy has been in the dark for a long time. On the one hand, the 7% growth registered – which for many is a simple rebound – helps to recover, although not completely, the steep 9.9% drop generated during isolation 2020. On the other hand, the difficulties are beginning to be reflected in the demand for money by the private sector: both in the case of large and medium-sized companies and families.
The worrying thing about the situation arises, mainly, in the fact that, just at a time when the sector requires a lifeline of financing, loans in pesos have fallen by 2.6% in real terms compared to the month of April . Already if it is compared with the data of 2020, the fall was more intense: 9.7%. This is a sustained decline that is already on its way to its 10th consecutive month.
However, not everything would be bad news. As developed by the Central Bank in its Monthly Monetary Report, said slowdown in loans is driven, almost entirely, by the evolution of commercial lines, mainly those aimed at large companies. This is why, the recovery that had been perceived until March, allowed them to avoid unnecessary debt. Large companies would be recovering their cash more quickly.
To understand it, it is important to compare the panorama with what was experienced during the first wave of Covid-19: in the face of restrictive measures of strong application and the uncertainty of what would happen, many of the productive sectors were paralyzed, which exploded the search boom and contracting financial services with subsidies in the different rates of bank loans. In that case, companies took out loans urgently, not just to invest or boost their expansion, but to stay afloat and pay salaries.
Nowadays, when income is rebounding, these same companies take advantage of the situation to cancel their existing loans without taking out new ones. It is that debt and / or investment decisions require a certain level of certainty regarding the medium and long term that is not available today. Even this economic rebound that is being talked about was interrupted in February and it is not clear what could happen in the coming months.
Clearly, the context is different for SMEs due to their characteristic reality: less back to resist periods of crisis and more difficulties in accessing credit. In this sense, the sector insists that during this second wave, a new financing shock is required.
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