The German health authorities reported 16,946 new corona infections to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) within one day. In addition, 465 new deaths were recorded within 24 hours, as the RKI announced on Sunday morning. The high of 1,188 new deaths was reached on Friday. Among the new infections registered within 24 hours, the highest value was reported on December 18, at 33,777 – but this included 3500 late reports.
An interpretation of the data remains difficult because around Christmas and the turn of the year corona cases were discovered, recorded and transmitted with a delay, according to the RKI. According to the Association of Accredited Laboratories in Medicine (ALM), the number of laboratory tests had fallen again over the turn of the year compared to Christmas week. Compared to the week before Christmas, the number has roughly halved in the past week. In addition, the numbers on the weekend are only partially meaningful due to missing or delayed reports from the health authorities.
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A good 1.9 million infections in Germany
The number of new infections reported to the health authorities within seven days per 100,000 inhabitants (seven-day incidence) was 162.2 on Sunday morning. Its previous high was reached on December 22nd at 197.6. However, the differences between the federal states are enormous: Saxony had the highest incidences with 269.8 and Thuringia with 232.4. Bremen had the lowest value with 74.0. Because of the holidays, the weekly values should also be assessed with caution.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the RKI has counted 1,908,527 detected infections with Sars-CoV-2 in Germany (as of 10.1., 00.00 a.m.). The total number of people who died with or with a proven infection with Sars-CoV-2 rose to 40,343. The RKI stated the number of people recovered to be around 1,525,300.
The situation in hospitals
When assessing the measures, the capacities of intensive care beds, equipment and staff are also important. The German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (Divi) last recorded (as of January 9, 1 p.m.) 5,414 corona patients who need intensive medical treatment in 1285 hospitals in Germany. 57 percent of corona intensive care patients have to be artificially ventilated. In addition, the Divi recorded 22,274 intensive care beds. 4,545 beds are still available.
R-value further increased slightly
The R-value calculated daily by the RKI denotes the effective reproduction number. It is an expression of the balance between the infection-avoiding behavior of the population and the infectivity of the virus itself. The estimate relates to the situation from about one and a half weeks ago. In order to avoid exponential growth, the value should be stable below the critical limit of one.
According to the RKI report on Sunday, the nationwide seven-day R-value was 1.16 (previous day: 1.17). This means that 100 infected people theoretically infect 116 more people. The value represents the occurrence of the infection eight to 16 days ago. If it is below one for a long time, the infection process subsides. The RKI emphasized that the R-value may be underestimated because of the delays.
This must be taken into account when assessing the infection situation
On November 11th, the RKI changed its recommendations for the test criteria. This means that only people with severe, corona-typical symptoms and contact persons of Covid 19 patients should be tested. This could increase the number of unreported coronaviruses because infected people with mild symptoms are no longer recorded.
With the new test strategy, the number of tests carried out increases again. While around 1.3 million tests were carried out in the first week of December, there were around 1.5 million tests in the second week of December. Recently there were fewer tests again – around 1.06 million a week until December 27th.
The positive rate also plays a role in assessing the infection rate in Germany. This key figure indicates how many of the corona tests carried out are actually positive. If the positive rate increases, this is an indication that the infection rate could increase.
Every Wednesday the RKI publishes the newly calculated positive rate in its situation report. The rate has been increasing since the beginning of September: While 0.86 percent of the tests were positive in the 37th calendar week (7th to 13th September), it was around 9 percent in mid-November. In the 53rd calendar week (December 23rd to 30th) it was around 16.7 percent.
A positive corona test says nothing about infectivity
If a corona test turns out positive, it means that those tested have been infected with Sars-CoV-2. However, it does not mean that they are also infectious and can infect others. The level of infection risk depends on the amount of virus.
The virus concentration describes the so-called Ct value. The higher this figure, the lower the virus concentration and the less likely it is that the infected can infect other people. The RKI points out that the Ct value can vary depending on the sampling and test method.
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