The Socialists are not quite in their pocket with the increase of the minimum pension to EUR 1,500. The discussion whether it is about net or gross is still open.
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The negotiators for the new Vivaldi government are determined: talks will continue to the finish this weekend. The balor MR-chairman Georges-Louis Bouchez is back again, after he was obliged by Conner Rousseau (sp.a) and Egbert Lachaert (Open VLD) to bind to the major principles of the forthcoming coalition agreement and, above all to turn.
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That was a nervous war, in which the socialists, according to their own reading, took the lead. Among other things, the liberals had to swallow that the growth standard in health care will not remain at 2.5 percent for two but four years, that a sentence about a contribution from the strongest shoulders was put in the framework agreement and that new taxes remain an option in the framework. of future budget discussions. But the socialists are particularly concerned with locking in the increase of the minimum pension to 1,500 euros, something that CD&V chairman Joachim Coens also keeps on his hat.
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6.2 billion
However, that trophy has not yet been obtained as the Socialists had in mind. In their election campaign, there was a net amount of 1,500 euros. But the discussion between net and gross has not yet been settled.
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The discussion starts because recent figures from the Pensions government service raise major questions about the affordability of the measure. According to those calculations, an increase to 1,500 euros net by 2024 will cost 5.6 billion euros. According to the liberals, it is even about 6.2 billion. If you don’t want to create an unemployment trap, you also have to increase the maximum pensions in the same breath. An increase to 1,500 euros gross costs 2.3 billion euros.
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But the socialists use different numbers. Because the benefits are already rising in any case due to indexation and the utilization of the wealth envelope, the bill would remain limited. That interpretation is also defensible. Although there is discussion about the figures of the pension service. One table has a cost of 3 billion, another of 4 billion. The socialists use the smallest number.
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The ideas for new income are not put on paper for fear of leaks.
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And it goes even further down. In reality, the net cost to the government is ‘only’ 1.4 billion, say the PS and the sp.a. These calculations include the payback effects resulting from an increase in pensions: extra tax revenues and extra consumption. But the Liberals say it is very unusual for paybacks to be factored into pension reforms.
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The limited budgetary space for new policy makes the discussion quite exciting. After all the slogans and promises, this is a story that could explode firmly in the face of the socialists. 1,500 euros gross is not a great net progress for many.
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Even if it will be 1,500 euros net, it will still be a swallow for many people. That 1,500 euros is only reserved for people with a full career and there are not many. Those who have not worked 45 years receive a minimum pension that is proportional to the number of career years. Anyone who has thirty years on the clock has to make do with 1,000 euros.
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Then there is that big blind spot in the negotiations so far: with what money is all that new policy paid for? Knowing that the left-wing parties are not keen on austerity, the liberals are not keen on taxes and the CD&V are not keen on a derailing budget. It turns out that all parties do have their ideas about this, but they are not put on paper for fear of leaks.
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