NSSL Phase 3: A Strategic Overview

The National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program is designed to ensure assured access to space for critical U.S. national security missions. Phase 3 is divided into two lanes, each with distinct requirements and objectives. Lane 2, the focus of this recent award, is tailored for more critical payloads requiring direct injection to Geosynchronous Equatorial Orbit (GEO).

These contracts are firm fixed-price, indefinite-delivery agreements, meaning the Space Force will issue mission batches to the selected launch providers over a five-year period, starting in fiscal year 2025. This approach allows for flexibility while ensuring long-term commitment and stability for the industry partners.

Today’s award culminates nearly three years of government and industry partnership to increase launch resiliency and capacity. The result is assured access to space for our national security missions, which increases the military’s readiness.
Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, Program Executive Officer for Assured Access to space

Mission Allocation: SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin’s Roles

The Space Force anticipates awarding a total of 54 launches over the five-year period.SpaceX is slated to receive approximately 60 percent of the missions (28 launches), while ULA will handle 40 percent (19 launches). Blue Origin, a newer entrant in this arena, is contracted for seven missions.

It’s critically important to note that while missions are assigned,the actual launches are projected to have a nominal two-year integration resulting in launches from FY27-FY32. Historically,national security payloads have faced delays due to payload readiness,not necessarily the launch vehicle itself.

Such as, the USSF-52 mission, involving the X-37B orbital spaceplane, was awarded to SpaceX in 2018 under the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle Phase 1A contract (later NSSL) with an expected launch in FY20. Though, it ultimately launched in December 2023. Similarly, ULA’s NROL-107/Silentbarker mission, awarded in 2018 with a planned FY22 launch, didn’t occur until September 2023. These delays underscore the complexities of integrating and preparing national security payloads for launch.

Lane 1 vs. Lane 2: Understanding the Differences

The Space Force strategically divided NSSL Phase 3 into two lanes to broaden the availability of U.S.-based launch providers. Lane 1 is designed for more commercially-oriented missions with higher risk tolerance and less stringent certification requirements. This allows emerging providers to enter the market and offer new capabilities.

Lane 1 is more commercial-like missions or missions that can be risk-tolerant and you don’t have to be completely certified. You can on-ramp every year to this IDIQ [indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity] and we’ll compete missions individually or in small blocks to get good value and to allow the emerging providers to bring new capabilities. They just need to bring what they want to bring. They don’t need to meet everything.
Col. Doug Pentecost, USSF’s Space Systems Command’s Deputy Program Executive Officer for Assured Access to Space

Currently, Blue Origin, SpaceX, and ULA are on-ramped to lane 1, along with Rocket Lab (Neutron rocket) and Stoke Space (Nova rocket). SpaceX has already secured a Lane 1 task order valued at approximately $734 million for seven Falcon 9 launches supporting the Space Development Agency’s (SDA) Tranche 2 Transporter layer satellite constellation.

Lane 2, in contrast, is reserved for more critical payloads, the bigger ones, the ones that we want to go direct inject to GEO, as described by Col. Pentecost. This lane demands higher mission assurance and caters to payloads destined for more challenging orbital destinations. A key requirement for lane 2 eligibility is the capability to launch from both the Western and Eastern Ranges, as well as supporting vertical integration of the rocket.

lane 2 is for those more critical payloads, the bigger ones, the ones that we want to go direct inject to GEO so that we save the fuel on the satellite so that we can maneuver in space, if we need to maneuver to a different area or maybe avoid things. and so, you can imagine that that type of capability is unique to what the military needs, where on the commercial side, and what the commercial launch providers are kind of building to, are more of the LEO, the low Earth orbit stuff and more transfer orbits and the things that commercial needs.
Col. Doug Pentecost, USSF’s Space Systems Command’s Deputy Program Executive Officer for Assured Access to Space

Infrastructure Upgrades and New Capabilities

To meet the stringent requirements of Lane 2, launch providers are investing in infrastructure upgrades. SpaceX is actively bringing Space Launch Complex 6 (SLC-6) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California online, which will include vertical integration capabilities for its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. ULA is converting SLC-3E from an Atlas 5 configuration to support its new Vulcan vehicle. The Vulcan pad will feature a vertical integration building that rolls away to reveal the rocket, similar to ULA’s previous Delta 4 pads.

ULA President and CEO Tory Bruno stated in March that the company had recently completed installing propellant tanks and was working on plumbing at SLC-3E. The first Vulcan launch from Vandenberg Space Force Base (for an NSSL phase 2 mission) is anticipated before the end of the year, contingent on payload readiness.

We are proud that we have launched 100 national security space missions and honored to continue serving the nation with our new Vulcan rocket. We are very pleased to be awarded 40 percent of the Phase 3 procurement. Vulcan is the right choice for critical national security space missions and is the only rocket today designed to meet all the requirements of our nation’s space launch needs.
Tory Bruno, ULA President and CEO

Blue Origin’s Entry and Industry Reactions

Blue Origin is the newest participant in launching complex national security missions. The company successfully launched its first New Glenn flight in January and has received FAA clearance for a second flight. While Blue Origin doesn’t currently have an operational launch pad at Vandenberg Space Force Base, plans are reportedly underway to build a launch complex at SLC-9.

Honored to serve additional national security missions in the coming years and contribute to our nation’s assured access to space. This is a great endorsement of New Glenn’s capabilities, and we are committed to meeting the heavy lift needs of our U.S. DoD and intelligence agency customers.
Dave Limp, Blue Origin CEO, in a post on X

Following the contract proclamation,Dave Limp and Tory Bruno publicly congratulated each other and SpaceX on social media platform X. however, SpaceX founder Elon Musk offered a more pointed perspective:

Winning 60 percent of the missions may sound generous, but the reality is that all SpaceX competitors combined cannot currently deliver the other 40 percent! I hope they succeed, but they aren’t there yet.
Elon Musk, SpaceX Founder