Bitcoin (BTC) has postponed its decline for the time being, and many are logically speculating on pullbacks to the various levels we have broken during that fall. Which, of course, such speculations on retracement are justified, because the potential gain is really decent. But the question is, where will bitcoin be able to go.
I expressed a skeptical attitude on yesterday’s stream (where there was a mega participation yesterday) that we will get above the S / R band, which rises between 29,000 – 33,000 USD. Others speculate on a pullback to the bear flag, which means testing about $ 39,000.
Otherwise, in this situation, I would like to state one fundamental thing, which also resulted from yesterday’s stream. Bearmarket is officially here. He was already de facto starting in the first quarter of last year, but we needed at least a few relevant signals to confirm. Including the $ 30,000 breakthrough. You can work with that now. Of course we are waiting for us turbulent development, where deep declines will be replaced by rapid growth as bull traps in retail. Of course, I don’t even know where the market bottom will be. I estimate it at $ 12,000 – $ 3,100. However, it depends on macroeconomic developments and the monetary policy of the Fed and many other central banks.
Current situation at 4H BTC / USD
So the bitcoin eventually bounced off the S / R level, which is around $ 26,500. It’s actually micro support that I didn’t really trust. It could easily pass that level like a butter knife. Of course, there were more of those attempts at reflection and they were quite easy to identify. Therefore, I marked in the graph all Pin bars that are in it. In fact, it was the 4th attempt that “came out”.
The second Pin Bar had huge volumes, which was a really disgusting bull trap. The candle convinced me that the $ 30,000 selling pressure would withstand. I was all the more surprised that bitcoin continued to decline.
Of course, there is no good signal that Pin bars will overwhelm the market anyway. In any case, there is a pullback to the original resistances. We are currently testing the former support. From the previous 4H candles, it can be seen that the effort to shorten that level is considerable. Nevertheless, the original support band seems to fully test bitcoin.
Other speculators can still calculate the return of the price above the original support and testing that bear flag. Respectively testing the lower limit of that structure in the form of a bear flag. Which would mean an increase of about 40% from the current market minimum. At the lower limit of the bear flag, it is, among other things, resistant confluence in the form of S / R level and at higher time frames the whole pile is close moving averages. Therefore, the probability of greater growth is almost impossible from a technical point of view.
In conclusion
Bitcoin somehow showed us the direction and we have to respect it. Once the retracement is complete, we will logically go down again. The only question is when this will happen. Everyone has to answer for themselves.
ATTENTION: No data in the video is an investment board. The analysis does not try to predict future price developments. It serves exclusively as educational content on how to approach the market. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!
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