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And yesterday’s analysis on Bitcoin (BTC) I said that shoppers had already tried several breakthroughs of $ 47,000 according to low time frames. It was tight, but in the end, neither attempt was successful. However, it is not easy for shoppers, because they are in an area that clearly smells like a bull trap. Then there are divergences on the monitored indicators.
Current situation at 1D TF BTC / USD
So Bitcoin visibly bounced back from $ 47,000 on the daily chart. So far, however, there is no dramatic decline, only rejections and a slight price decline can be identified. It is very important now monitor volumes, to be aware of what powers sellers are capable of. So if we go down accompanied by huge volumes, it is naturally a problem.
Personally, I’m glad we tested $ 47,000 because it is the lower limit of the distribution bandwhich is in the range of 47,000 – 64,000 USD. Remember how I talked sometime in late May about Wyckoffově method? If not, come for the evening stream, because I want to do it again.
To put it briefly, by testing the lower limit of the distribution scheme, we almost meet the conditions for Bitcoin to go looking for a new annual low. The last condition, however, is volumes. Respectively, with the reflection and fall of the price, they should rise sharply, but nothing like this is happening yet.
As for other factors, Bitcoin is currently testing a 200-day moving average. However, it is quite likely that it will fall and we will see retestu S / R level 42,000 USD. In this way, Bitcoin will also test the original resistance diagonals, Low Volume Node on the volume profile. In addition, there is a higher peak from July 31. In short, we have a solid here confluence.
The result of the retest is logically very important for us and the future price development on the BTC market may depend on it. I think there’s a good chance the market will cut that $ 42,000. But what we think is not so important, the result is important.
In any case, it is also crucial for Bitcoin to get out of that risk zone. I would also like to say that the price does not stay in this relatively narrow range for too long. Certainly not a few months as in the range of 30,000 – 42,000 USD. We do not have much room for consolidation here.
Indicators
As I pointed out in previous analyzes, there is still considerable divergence on RSI, which is at least a harbinger of a correction. Otherwise, the current rejection is not, in my reaction, the divergence. When the market no longer leaves bearish divergence unanswered, falls tend to be dynamic.
For the $ 47,000, however, the price progression only stopped and a small decline followed. In short, the signal remains rather unused, so it’s still a risk. The same is true for the MACD histogram.
In conclusion
The dynamic course at BTC has certainly not ended and the rest of August will remain technically interesting. However, it is crucial for Bitcoin that a final resolution comes soon. By that I mean that a possible breakthrough of $ 47,000 may change a lot.
It should be remembered, however, that around $ 52,500 is a lot of break even prices for longmen who have collected a total of about 20,000 BTCs. From a technical point of view, therefore, the breakthrough of USD 47,000 is a huge step forward, which does not mean that there is any certainty that we are going up.
ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!
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