11/15/22 BTC/USD Analysis – Bitcoin beyond the Abyss

Bitcoin (BTC) is teetering on the precipice. Or is it consolidating before another dip? The consolidation has been going on for several days now and volatility has returned to normal levels. But for now, the BTC exchange rate does not want to go down. How come? because there is still some certainty in the markets to risk. However, this can change with the snap of a finger. That’s why it’s good to be prepared in advance. The question, however, is how deep a leg will be we’ll see. I remind you that from current prices it is “only” about 29% up to USD 12,000. A panic sell-off and we’re at the levels we’ve been waiting for for at least a year. Just push it a little.

Has the dollar index peaked?

I introduced myself Sunday video analysisand that the dollar index had its worst week in years. In just one week, the index lost almost 4%. This is a huge loss in such a large market. As if Bitcoin lost 40% in just one week. Many see the decline in the US dollar as an opportunity to turn the markets around. The second group, on the other hand, sees in it the arrival of a big problem in the form of a recession or even a crisis in the American economy. And I lean more to the other side, of course.

When investors and speculators start to feel a macroeconomic problem in the air, what do they do? Well, they are gradually withdrawing their capital from the country. And to get their capital out of the country, they have to sell assets for a dollar. And then exchange the dollar for another currency. Or exchange the dollar for gold, for example. That is why the gold market has also rallied very strongly, which we will devote to a separate analysis this week.

Therefore, one fundamental thing must be realized. A decline in the dollar index doesn’t automatically imply a hike in risky assets like these Actions a Bitcoin. And this is also confirmed by the behavior of the cryptocurrency market. You remember how I sometimes say that Bitcoin is like this canaries?

Bitcoin is consolidating previous losses

Then the BTC rate found its local minimum at the first support, which is around $16,000. It is actually the first relevant level below the $19,000 level. It was therefore logical to expect that the first greater willingness to absorb the offer would arrive here.

From which came a quick 15% plus rebound. This tested previous support around $19,000. And as you can see, the touch response was negative. This turned former support into resistance. Thereafter, the course returned to sustaining at a slow pace. Where once again there was a positive reaction. There was still some motivation to defend support. However, Monday’s candlestick wasn’t exactly convincing. This is a spinning top that is pretty neutral.

Do you have your daily chart in front of you? If not, turn them on. And take a look at what was happening when the BTC market fell in two trading days and a backpack like that. It mostly continued after the consolidation, didn’t it? Or do you see something else?

In short

Personally, I don’t think BTC will go back above the key $19,000 range. Maybe we’ll see a second test. Sure, I don’t have a crystal ball, but we’ve seen massive weakness in the market for a year straight. And under such conditions, it is rational to expect the downtrend to continue.

At least until we get to the in fact historically very liquid levels. And those start at $12,000. When we get here, we can say that the worst is probably over. However, everyone has their own head and must therefore make do according to their own discretion.