The US economy is virtually certain of sliding into a recession next year, Bloomberg Economics forecast models show. It could be a major economic blow for US President Biden ahead of November’s mid-term elections.
Economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger put a 100% chance of a recession by October 2023 (one year) into their latest forecasting model. In the previous analysis it was 65%.
Bloomberg Economics’ forecasting model uses 13 macroeconomic and financial indicators to project the likelihood of a recession over a period of one month to two years.
Not only did the model reach a 100% probability of recession in the following year, it also increased the probability in a shorter period. The probability within 11 months is 73%, compared with 30% in the previous analysis. The probability within 10 months increased from zero last time to 25%.
Bloomberg Economics said the deterioration in the outlook is due to a large deterioration in the economic and financial indicators used in the model.
Original title:The forecast for the US recession within the year reaches 100% in Blow to Biden(extract)
