/ world today news/ The Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev indicated in a program article what are the causes and what are the results of the economic crisis in Russia.
Due to falling oil prices, sanctions and structural problems, the Russian economy faced a serious crisis. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev indicated in an article program what the main consequences of the economic crisis are and what is its main cause.
According to him, a fundamental renewal of the economic system is taking place in Russia. “Russian Diary” highlighted the main theses of the article.
1. The problems of the Russian economy are part of the world’s problems
The global crisis that began in 2008 led to instability in world markets: a global financial market was formed that is able to move huge sums of money around the world almost instantly. But a system of global regulation adequate to it was not created. The political factor increasingly actively intervenes in economic policy, often replacing market competition with itself. Sanctions are only the most visible manifestation of this trend.
2. Russia’s economy is affected not by oil and sanctions, but by structural problems
In 2015, the price of oil practically doubled in half a year, and this is an unprecedented phenomenon in modern economic history. However, the main factor continues to be the structural problems of the Russian economy and, above all, the highly exhausted model of economic growth from the first decade of the century. The significant decline in growth rates began long before the sharp drop in oil prices and the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions.
3. Russia remained a market economy despite external threats
At the end of 2014, Russia was predicted to be in for a disaster, and it could have happened if a government had decided to have a fixed ruble exchange rate, increase budget spending, fix prices, etc. Instead, the authorities set about systematically countering the strikes. The results turned out to be better than most predictions.
4. Dependence on oil began to decline
The share of revenues not related to oil and gas reached almost 60%. Decisions to limit inflation made it possible to preserve gold and foreign exchange reserves and ensure the stability of the monetary system. Inflation is constantly decreasing and will not exceed 6% at the end of the year.
5. The banking system remained stable despite the crisis
In the first half of 2016, the central bank terminated the activities of 48 credit organizations, and in 2015, 93 banks were closed. And yet there was no banking panic in Russia. The banking system is stable enough. In 2015, the volume of deposits of the population increased by 25%, and the volume of funds on the accounts of Russian enterprises increased by 20%.
6. The outflow of money from Russia has decreased
In 2015, capital outflow from Russia shrank more than 2.5 times – to $58.1 billion compared to $153 billion in 20014.
In the first half of 2016, it was $10.5 billion, compared to $51.5 billion in the first half of 2015.
Moreover, Russia’s total external debt fell from its peak of $733 billion in mid-2014 to $516 billion in mid-2016.
7. Growth in industry is looming
The fall in the ruble exchange rate gave an impetus to the growth of production inside the country. At the end of 2015, the growth in the food industry was 2%, in chemical production – 6.3%, and in the production of petroleum products – 0.3%. The production of medicinal products increased by 26%. Sustainable positive dynamics is demonstrated by agriculture: in 2015, the sector grew by 3%, and in the first seven months of 2016 – by 3.2%.
8. Companies and people started buying more Russian goods
The biggest effect was seen in car manufacturing. Thanks to the created mixed productions with foreign companies in 2015, the share of imports fell by 22.5%. The share of imports in the production of metals and iron ores decreased by 4.5%, in the case of textiles and haberdashery the decrease was by 7.8%, and in the case of food products – 4.1%.
9. Businesses turned out to be richer than people
So far, the stabilization measures cannot compensate for the main consequence of the crisis – the decline in the well-being of Russians: real disposable incomes have decreased, and real wages have shrunk. At the same time, there are more than 21 trillion in the accounts of Russian companies. rubles ($185 billion).
10. The government expects an increase in investment
The transition to sustainable growth requires a substantial increase in the scale of investments from the current 20% of GDP to 22-24%. It is necessary to develop measures that not only stimulate savings, but also contribute to their transformation into investments. The problem is not interest rates, but the high level of uncertainty.
The text of the article in Russian
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