Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The war between Russia and Ukraine over the past year has not only united Western countries, but has also opened up a widening gap with the rest of the world that will determine the map of the future global order.
This can be seen from a study conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank. They conducted the poll in nine European Union (EU) member countries, including France, Germany and Poland, as well as Britain, the United States (US), China, Russia, India and Turkey.
The study reveals sharp geographic differences in attitudes to war, democracy and the global balance of power. This suggests Russian aggression may be a historic turning point that heralds the emergence of a post-western world order.
“The paradox of the Ukraine war is that the West is more united, and less influential in the world, than ever before,” said Mark Leonard, director of the thinktank and co-author of the report.
Timothy Garton Ash, professor of European studies at the University of Oxford who also worked on the research, called the findings “very serious”. Surveys show the war has given the West transatlantic unity and purpose.
Even so, said Ash, the war failed to persuade other major countries, such as China, India, and Turkey. “The lesson was clear: we urgently need new narratives that are truly persuasive to countries like India, the world’s largest democracy,” he explained.
Negative View of Russia
The survey shows western views of Russia have hardened in the past year. Major majorities in the UK (77%), US (71%) and nine EU countries (65%) consider Russia to be an “enemy”, in conflict with their countries, or competing as a “rival”.
On the other hand, only 14% in the US, 15% in the nine EU countries surveyed and 8% in the UK view Russia as an “ally” who shares their interests, or a “necessary partner”. Western respondents were equally negative about Russia.
Asked to choose two out of 10 proposed descriptions, in the US 45% and 41% of survey respondents chose “aggressive” and “untrustworthy”, along with 48% and 30% in nine EU countries and 57% and 49% in England.
Across the nine EU countries surveyed, an average of 55% of people support continued sanctions against Moscow even at the expense of economic hardship.
“Compared to a similar poll last summer, what’s more, Russia’s war against Ukraine is now seen by more people in the western alliance as a fight for their own democracy and security – and as a war not just within, but in Europe,” the ECFR said. .
Support for Ukraine
In the US, 36% of respondents said support for Ukraine was largely driven by the need to defend American democracy. Meanwhile in the UK (44%) and among nine EU countries (45%) support Ukraine is about defending their own security.
More people in Europe (44% in the UK, 38% in the EU nine) believe Ukraine should take back all of its territory, even at the cost of a longer war, and fewer (22% and 30%) want the war to end soon, even if that means Ukraine ceding its land to Russia.
Response Differences
The responses from the non-western countries surveyed were very different. Large numbers of people in China (76%), India (77%) and Turkey (73%), for example, said they felt Russia was “stronger” or “as strong” before the war. They see Moscow as their country’s strategic “ally” and “necessary partner” (79% China, 79% India, 69% Turkey).
Likewise, more (41% in China, 48% in Turkey and 54% in India) want the war to end as soon as possible, even if it means Ukraine surrendering its territory. Meanwhile only 23%, 27% and 30% thought Ukraine should regain its land even at the cost of a longer conflict.
There is also more skepticism about Western motives. Less than a quarter of those surveyed in China and Turkey, for example, and just 15% in Russia, believe the west supports Ukraine to maintain its own security or democracy.
Nearly two-thirds of Russian respondents (64%) said the US was the “enemy”, with 51% and 46% saying the same about the EU and the UK. Within China, 43% consider the US a rival, 40% say the same about the UK and 34% about the EU.
New world order?
Many outside the west predict the US-led liberal order will cede global dominance over the next decade. The West is predicted to become only one global power among several. Only 7% in Russia and 6% in China predict it will be dominant 10 years from now.
However, in Europe and the US, many (29% in the UK, 28% in 9 EU, and 26% in the US) predict a new bipolar world from the two blocs led by the US and China, whereas there are signs that emerging strength sees the future future in more multipolar terms.
In India, for example, 87% of respondents said they consider the US an “ally” or “partner”, while 82% feel the same way about the EU, 79% about Russia and the UK, and 59% about Turkey. Only China is seen as a “rival” or “enemy” (75%).
“Many in the west see the coming international order as a return to cold war bipolarity between west and east, democracy and authoritarianism,” said the study’s authors. “But people in those countries see themselves very differently.”
The study explains the west has to live, with hostile dictatorships like China and Russia, but also with independent powers like India and Turkey. It does not represent some new third bloc or even share the same ideology, but neither are they content to conform to the wishes and plans of the superpowers.
“Instead of expecting them to support Western efforts to maintain a fading post-Cold war order, we should be prepared to partner with them in building a new one,” the study explains.
(luc/luc)
