1.5 million vaccines are missing to cover the target population

The Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (ICEFI) estimates that El Salvador needs 1.5 million doses of the covid-19 vaccine to cover the target population that has been proposed, which are people 6 years of age and older.

At the end of 2021, the government received 15,604,580 doses, but ICEFI estimated in a recent report that 17.1 million are required to cover the target population. The figure excludes the vaccines that foreigners might need, but takes into account that those over 18 years of age have the option of applying a third dose as a booster.

If the vaccination schedule is maintained as it has been until now, that is, two doses for all Salvadorans 6 years of age and older and three for those over 18, and assuming that a fourth vaccine will not be needed, El Salvador still has to guarantee the Supply of 1.5 million more doses to cover the target population.

“If one follows the trend that had been observed in the monthly purchases that had been made throughout the year 2021, El Salvador in the first quarter of 2022 could have all the vaccines it needs to cover the target population,” said Ricardo Castaneda , Senior Economist at ICEFI.

However, from there, at least two challenges will arise for the authorities. One is inventory management to address vaccine expiration, and this point includes addressing vaccination hesitancy. The ICEFI indicated that the peak of immunizations was seen in August and from September the decline began, to the point that 2021 closed with levels that were only observed in April, when vaccination was reserved only for certain population groups and the supply of drugs was just beginning.

“In its strategy, El Salvador prioritized making the vaccine available to all age groups, foreigners or the third dose, over ensuring that those who do not want to be vaccinated do so,” the institute said.

The infectologist Iván Solano Leiva pointed out, during the presentation of the report, that many Salvadorans who have not been vaccinated are due to lack of information. “It is logical that a person does not have knowledge in medicine, they may be susceptible to being misinformed (…). We do not see an information strategy and to date there are about 1.2 million without a single dose,” he reflected.

Another challenge that the government will have to face is to achieve room for maneuver to renegotiate with the pharmaceutical companies, in the event that it had reserved more vaccines than necessary.