Once the rinse has taken place, do yesterday’s analysis on Bitcoin (BTC) I immediately wrote a short update. I mentioned that the response was expected for resistance confluence, but no one could have guessed in advance how the market would react in real terms. Interestingly, at one point, the whole market shook. Gold, stock indices, bond ETFs, DXY – Volatility increased everywhere at the same time.
And then suddenly Bitcoin started dumping. It was very interesting to see how the financial markets are nicely interconnected and you can see it with the naked eye on the screen. In any case, it is quite important for Bitcoin to close Wednesday, or today’s, candles. If the price closes in the range of 42,000 – 47,000 USD, we will probably stay within the specified limit for some time.
Current situation at 1D TF BTC / USD
As I said, the rejection came in resistance confluencewhich consists of an S / R level of $ 52,500, Low Volume Node and the Golden Ratio on the Fibonacci sequence. So the reaction was expected here, but no one is a fortune teller, so he can’t predict exactly what Bitcoin will do. Respectively, it was clear that there would be at least a small rejection.
In that case, we would probably continue up again after a short break. In the end, it was a relatively massive rinse up to the S / R level of 42,000 USD. Bitcoin had to fall by about 19% to be able to find strong enough support at all. The course passed the $ 47,000 course like a butter knife, no reaction at all.
The truth is that at the same time, with a rapid decline, I expected for a while that the exchange rate would break even the 42,000 USD. But to some extent it was silly, because there is a Low Volume Node, a strong S / R level and basically the whole range of 42,000 – 30,000 USD is according to volume profile such an imaginary one big wall.
As for yesterday’s volumes, they were not at all the largest in the last few weeks. The stronger sell volume was only on June 21 and then during those declines in May. This is not very good news, because we know similar Price Action from the turn of April / May. The volumes are very similar, so it is quite expected that a substantial part of the participants would rather withdraw from the market.
By that I mean that a similar course will be expected as at the end of April. Of course, we are not sure that history will repeat itself, but the probability is considerable. Markets know this, which everyone has to reckon with.
Indicators
So in the end, the five-fold bearish divergence on the daily RSI took effect. Indeed, when you have a series of divergences on the indicators, they apply rather than invalidate them. So divergences are no noise that you can completely ignore. In the end, they will catch up with you.
Otherwise, there was a bearish cross on the MACD, the negative momentum quickly intensified. It hasn’t been that strong since May. So let’s see what comes out of it.
Current situation at 4H TF BTC / USD
I’m adding an intraday chart just to give everyone a better idea of how fast it was. Above all, I wanted to point out that the sell volume was a serious record for the monitored candle. Only in May were there a pair of 4H candles with similar volumes. Therefore, there is also a reasonable suspicion that the then free fall may be repeated.
Indicators
At 4H RSI, the values are currently 24 points. In fact, we have been below 30 points for about 18 hours, which is something unseen. For so long, the 4H RSI did not stay below 30 points even in May. Bitcoin is therefore seriously weak. However, at least party consolidation should come.
In conclusion
As I say many times, no one sees the future, so it makes no sense to predict short-term price movements in any way. But objectively we can say that the market has been beaten and after such a beating a lot of bullish power will be needed. Can she find enough? We’ll see, for now, it’s obvious that the bears have taken the reins. The only question is how long the reins will be under control.
ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!
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