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And yesterday’s analysis at Bitcoin (BTC), we have clarified the threats posed by the global financial market. Above all, the dollar index and the bond market are strengthening, market interest rates are falling. In short, not good because the screws are tightened. The longer the described condition lasts, the greater the danger for stocks and, of course, Bitcoin. Therefore, we will analyze these markets more often.
Dollar Index and Bitcoin
So how’s the dollar index? DXY has been steadily expanding for about six weeks. We managed to break through the resistance band, which is around 91.7 points and currently the market is fighting for a local S / R level of 92.5 points. Another goal is the high from the end of March, which is also the same annual high. If the said level breaks, the financial markets will undoubtedly notice and there will be a possibility of panic in the air.
The growing dollar index implies the so-called risk off environment, which I have talked about many times. Some investors are hiding their capital in the US dollar, and if this process is striking, other investors may begin to sniff the problem and begin to withdraw their capital from the market. We have to watch DXY, because Bitcoin is then extremely threatened.
It’s extra right now fundamental difference compared to the first quarter of this year in that this time the US government bond market is on horseback. From which the US dollar benefits.
Current situation at 1D TF BTC / USD
Yesterday’s candle on BTC closed quite lifelessly. Half of its length is made up of the body, while the upper half is made up of the wick. The candle is, in popular terms, fickle, simply total boredom. On the other hand, there was a threat that a sale would result and the daily close would end somewhere in the middle of the support zone. Then it would be quite certain that we would test the $ 30,000 again.
Today is as lifeless as yesterday, volatility it’s just awful on BTC and I’m slowly starting to worry that it’s a sign of the cucumber season. Or the market is preparing something for us, because too low volatility means calm before the storm. Volumes are slightly larger than the previous three trading days in the last two days. But otherwise they’re still lousy.
In any case, the “mini” uptrend from 22 June applies, even if the structure of growth is meaningless. At least he would like to test it Point of Controlso that we can observe the reaction, from which the leccost can be read. Otherwise, it is quite probable that a similar slap will last the entire summer holidays. Which I’ve been worried about since May. Bitcoin has lost all momentum and it can take weeks to move.
Indicators
I put some hope into RSI that when the curve breaks through one of the drawn diagonals, it will move more and dynamics will return to the market. So I’m very curious where the breakthrough will go. As for MACD, the momentum is very weak, which we can see in the price chart.
In conclusion
Now it’s definitely a good idea to wait for what Bitcoin will do once the RSI curve breaks. Maybe something bigger will come out of it, at least we could finally look forward to testing the Point of Control. That is, provided we break through. We need to monitor market signals, but there is not much available at the moment. In any case, it is probably prudent to prepare for the possibility that we will not move anywhere during the summer.
ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!
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