Bitcoin (BTC) did not bring us the desired rally, but for that we have another weekly close just above the S/R level of USD 19,000. And that is crucial information for us. Despite the failures regarding the rebound, however, even the bears do not manage to short the support. So as long as we’re above that $19,000, it’s cool.
Anyway, as I mentioned in Sunday’s video analysis, the semi-annual, quarterly and monthly candles closed for us just above the mentioned level. That too is a signal. In short, the sellers did not have the strength to definitively push the price below the previous ATH peak from 2017. That is, they failed to close the price below it.
Otherwise, the dollar index looks like it has been grinding since the last one. The mentioned market has visibly lost its previous inertia. And this is a huge opportunity for Bitcoin. Once DXY swings to risk on, bitcoin may start that expected rally. Among other things, small traders and investors are still depressed. And if we use the reverse psychology, for that reason alone the bearmarket rally makes sense. But it is not a certainty. More precisely, the possibility of another flash crash can never be ruled out. But it won’t come by itself. Something must trigger it.
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Current situation on 1W BTC/USD
As I already stated in the introduction, we have a weekly close above the key one My S/R letter $19,000. Which can be interpreted as the sellers’ inability to lower the price below this key level. In short, they are not able to proceed as confidently as before. It does not guarantee us anything, but as long as Bitcoin holds said support, a rebound is likely.
The form of the candle itself is bearish, but in context it is just consolidating. It does not give any direction more or less. It’s not just a breakthrough candle. So we already have the third candle in a row that ended with a closing price above $19,000. Perhaps some may argue that we had the same near $30,000 a few weeks ago.
But this time the situation is technically quite different. At that time, Bitcoin was de facto already under support. However, we are now beyond support. In addition, the May 30 open candle closed as a heavily bearish candle. That was a big signal that something was very wrong. Now we don’t have anything like that in the chart. But that doesn’t mean it can’t change radically during the current week.
Indicators
Weekly RSI indicator it is still in deep levels indeed. Currently at 25.6 points. Among other things, the values stayed below 30 points for the longest time since 2011. At the moment, only someone who is very sure of himself can short Bitcoin. But of course it is only a technical indicator. However, if we also look at the price chart, it completely screams for a retracement.
In conclusion
BTC mainly entered the cucumber season. One positive thing is that Bitcoin didn’t completely spill over into the summer holidays. If nothing like that comes in the current week, we probably don’t have to worry about it anymore. I would like to point out that the whole summer is rarely without dynamics. Most of the time, part of the summer is quite dynamic. Think about it.
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ATTENTION: None of the information in the article is investment advice. The analysis does not attempt to predict future price developments. It serves exclusively as educational content on how to think about the market. Do your own research and analysis before making any investment, you always trade at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual consideration of risks!
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