So after 48 hours I have prepared another update for Bitcoin (BTC) for you. Since the last analysis the negative momentum has noticeably lost strength and we already have some recognizable structure in the graph. In fact, it seems that we are finding the bottom of the correction and we could expect a reflection very soon.
But it doesn’t make much sense, because the CME gap, which a lot of people have so much waiting for, including me, hasn’t been filled yet. It simply doesn’t make much sense for the price to collapse, and just before the gap the exchange rate rebounded. If the gap is not filled in, then (popularly speaking) we will always have it as a threat in the back.
We certainly do not want that, because the market naturally tends to fill the gaps, and the risk of a sudden fall will therefore remain with us. If the exchange rate just doesn’t pump for the few hundred and it bounces off, then don’t forget the gap in CME, always take it into account as a kind of risk.
Current situation at 4H TF BTC / USD
At first glance, it is clear from the chart that there is a significant initiative in terms of defending the S / R level at $ 9,934. Be sure to notice the candle with the extraordinarily long wick and tiny body – it’s a hammer supported by large volumes, and even the next candle closed over the hammer to confirm the candle. However, the course still slipped slightly below the hammer wick.
Here I will allow myself a short nipple so that you are not so confused by terminology. The pin bar and hammer are formally the same, but I personally distinguish it. But in order not to confuse you, take it that when I’m talking about a hammer, I give it a little more weight than when it’s “just” a pin bar. Take note when reading my analyzes.
But now we return to the graph itself. The exchange rate attacked the S / R level of USD 9,934 for the third time in a relatively short period of time. But it has not succeeded in breaking it yet, and it almost seems that it will not succeed. The negative momentum visibly weakens and, in addition, the turning (bullish) falling wedge is outlined in the graph. If the course attacks the upper edge of the pattern and a breakout occurs, it is a clear buy signal.
Unfortunately, this would mean for us that the gap will not be filled this time. Respectively, this must happen sometime in the future, but it is just on the market when it will happen. Anyway, the breakout from the falling wedge may come today or tomorrow at the latest. I will of course follow this and in connotation of the meaning of price action I will do a separate analysis, or just add a short comment to this text.
Indicators
As for RSI, as many of you have certainly noticed, there is a bullish divergence. The exchange rate jumped slightly, but it is certainly not an adequate response to such a large divergence. Either divergence did not occur at all, or the bulls reacted terribly weakly. From the second variant, we could deduce that we will still fill the gap.
But that would mean it’s a falling wedge in the chart quite confusing. MACD has a fresh bullish cross. In the event that we experience the breakout mentioned several times, this signal would perhaps be confirmed. Without an adequate price response, it cannot be taken seriously yet.
Conclusion
It is clear to me that most of you are waiting for the CME gap to be filled. It seems like such a certainty, because once that happens, you can expect a rebound up again. However, we have to calculate with the variant that the market with us will grow to a certain extent and will be reflected even without it.
It certainly pays to be patient and stick to your plan if it is still justified at the time. So if your plan is to wait for the gap to be filled, you’d better wait for it. Personally, I now perceive that it is still very realistic that the market will run out of this gap.
ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!
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