[최윤희의 한반도 평화 워치] North Korea’s worrying extreme actions… We need to check our security preparedness first.

Choi Yoon-hee, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and President of the Korea Maritime Union

North Korea’s internal and external trends are unusual. Chairman Kim Jong-un appears frequently to order economic revival and encourage efforts to repair the flood damage that occurred at the end of July, but it is not easy. Kim Jong-un recently visited Jagang Province, a flood-hit area, and postponed the restoration project, which was supposed to be completed by November, to December. The limitations caused by the depletion of internal resources were revealed. Food shortages still persist. Germany’s ‘World Hunger Aid’ ranked North Korea as one of the 10 poorest countries in the world again this year. More than 53% of the residents are severely malnourished, and there are even rumors that soldiers’ rations have been reduced. Due to these concerns, there are also observations that Kim Jong-un’s health is deteriorating significantly due to sleep disorders and excessive drinking and smoking.

North Korea’s situation worsens, including food shortage
We must prepare for North Korea’s abnormal judgment.
Concerns over security posture, including decrease in troops
The hole of security populism must be plugged.

If North Korea’s Foreign Ministry’s claim on the 11th that South Korea sent a drone over Pyongyang is true, it is a fatal threat to Kim Jong-un. When I was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in May 2014, I suffered great embarrassment when it was revealed that a North Korean drone had flown over the Blue House. To prevent recurrence, we reviewed advanced detection and interception systems around the world. However, there was no suitable solution. North Korea cannot help but be shocked as it has recently seen advanced countries with cutting-edge technology, such as the United States and Israel, use drones to assassinate members of enemy countries.

North Korea backed into a corner, concerned about extreme provocations

In any country, the domestic situation affects foreign relations. Considering this, we must prepare for abnormal judgments from North Korea, which is currently experiencing internal difficulties. North Korea already held the Supreme People’s Assembly (regular session of the National Assembly) on the 7th to revise the constitution and defined South Korea as a hostile country. It appears that the unification task (Article 9) in the Constitution has also been deleted. On the 15th, the roads and railways on the Gyeongui-Donghae Line, which had been painstakingly connected, were blown up. In particular, the North Korean military’s recent deployment of troops to Ukraine, which has recently raised concerns in the international community, is truly the height of abnormality. North Korea may be preparing a scenario that goes further than this. What is of immediate concern is securing food and cutting-edge military technology from Russia in return for sending troops. It would be a disaster for us if Russia’s cutting-edge missile and nuclear-powered submarine construction technology flows to North Korea.

The bigger problem is the international repercussions that the deployment of troops will bring. North Korea’s deployment of troops serves as a justification for free countries such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to participate in the war in Ukraine, and an escalation of the war in Ukraine is inevitable. It is a dangerous situation that could easily lead to a nuclear attack by Russia. Faced with criticism and pressure, North Korea may take some extreme action, such as military provocation. In an article for the Washington Post on the 11th, American columnist Fareed Zakaria assessed the situation on the Korean Peninsula as the most dangerous moment since the ceasefire. This is by no means an exaggeration.

Given this series of critical situations, what is our security posture? The number of standing troops decreased due to the shortening of the active duty service period in consideration of the votes of the younger generation. According to data from the Korea Institute for Defense Analyzes (KIDA), if the current birth rate remains the same, military service resources will plummet from about 370,000 in 2015 to about 140,000 in 2040. The number of standing troops decreased from 639,000 in 2012 to 500,000 in 2022. At this rate, it is realistically impossible to maintain a standing army of 500,000 in accordance with National Defense Reform 4.0. Even now, the skill level of active-duty soldiers is beyond words. If you can barely adapt, you will be discharged.

The September 19 inter-Korean military agreement and excessive salary increases for soldiers are also causing side effects. Due to the wrong judgment of the political world and expectations for peace, the public’s security awareness has reached a dangerous level. The unprecedented salary increase for active-duty soldiers took away the motivation of the MZ generation to apply for military executives. Over the past seven years, the application rate for military executives has been cut in half, and it is urgent to fill the quota, let alone acquire excellent resources. The backs of the military, which plays a key role in battle, are collapsing. No matter how advanced a weapon system is, it is useless if there is no manpower to properly operate it. The era of soldiers walking for honor despite difficult working conditions is over. We must overcome the crisis with an all-out security posture with all citizens working together.

Need to consider extending soldier’s service period
The military must be alert and not just shout out words such as “water tight alert” or “immediately, strongly, and to the end”. Security does not tolerate mistakes. It is also urgent to plug the hole created by political populism. The issue of extending the service period of active-duty soldiers should be considered. How long the service period is extended is a later issue. The discussion on extending the service period itself could be an opportunity to correct the collapsed national security awareness. As the crisis of military conflict with China escalated, Taiwan extended the mandatory service period from four months to 12 months starting last January. What is noteworthy is that 85% of Taiwanese people are in favor of extending the military service period. Which security threat is more serious, ours or Taiwan? Security should not be weighed against political pros and cons.

Special measures to boost the morale of the military are also a fire in the foot. Those in uniform who risk their lives for the life and safety of the people deserve respect. However, according to the audit data submitted by the Ministry of National Defense to the National Assembly this year, the job satisfaction level of military executives clearly shows the military’s crisis. Job satisfaction, which was 71.9% in 2020, decreased to 44.9% last year. The social evaluation felt by military executives plummeted from 33.9% to 12.6%. According to the Korea Institute for Defense Development, the employment rate of discharged soldiers is around 52%. This is a result from 2015, but it is highly likely that it has fallen further recently. This compares to developed countries where 90% of discharged soldiers find re-employment and lead stable lives even after discharge. The morale of the military is at this level. How long are they going to force the ‘patriotic pay’? It’s not just the reserve generals who line up at election camps during presidential elections that are to blame.

I would like to introduce a case I recently experienced. After a murder using a Japanese sword occurred last July, the authorities investigated the management of the Samjeongsword, the symbol of a general. The reserve generals went to the local police station with their swords in the heat of August to be inspected. As a result of his lifelong devotion to his country, he was returned with the suspicion that he was a potential criminal. Senior generals even got into fights with young police officers. A senior general who was over 90 years old said, “Now this sword is no longer an honor or pride for me, it’s just a nuisance, so throw it away immediately.” It’s a pity that the authorities had to do that. No matter how better the world becomes, war will not disappear. North Korea’s threat is reaching its peak, and I am concerned that we may be denying the value of the military’s existence.

Choi Yoon-hee, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and President of the Korea Maritime Union