[주간증시전망]Breathing phase… Vaccination and US stimulus measures pay attention

[이데일리 김소연 기자] This week (March 2-5), the domestic stock market is expected to continue its breathtaking phase to resume the uptrend in the second quarter. As KOSPI companies are also raising their earnings forecasts, we believe a strategy to buy in installments is effective. The interest in the stock market is also expected to shift from concerns over US interest rates to domestic vaccine stores and additional economic stimulus measures in the US.

The burden of rising interest rates, acting as an index decline

According to market points on the 1st, KOSPI closed the trade at 3012.95 last week (February 22-26), down 66.8 points and 2.16%. The surge in US 10-year interest rates and the recovery of liquidity from the People’s Bank of China increased the burden of rising interest rates, which contributed to a decline in the index. The downtrend showed stability in response to the news of US Chairman Jerome Powell’s reaffirmation of easing monetary policy, but increased volatility as 10-year interest rates rose.

On the 23rd-24th of last month (local time), Chairman Powell made a speech to evolving the situation surrounding rising interest rates and rising inflation through a speech to the House and Senate. The rise in interest rates has subsided, but interest rates surged again, with the 10-year interest rate surpassing 1.6% on weekdays, greatly dampening the sentiment of preference for risky assets. Interest rate rises are natural during the economic recovery period, but the rate is unnatural, which is believed to cause market uncertainty.

Experts predict that interest rate uncertainty will not last long. Han Ji-young, a researcher at Cape Investment & Securities, said, “It is worth noting that the current interest rate rise is taking up a large part of the excessive side, and the market’s doubts about the Fed will be resolved over time.” The valuation burden is also lowering as the valuation has been rising.”

Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, also analyzed that “the market was sensitive to interest rate variables, internal and external uncertainties, and adverse events,” saying, “In a situation where the KOSPI’s overheating and valuation burden increased, the economic and corporate performance momentum was not strong enough to support it.” did.

Corporate profits uptrend… Also pay attention to vaccination

The domestic stock market, which went through a correction last week, is expected to find stability. In particular, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that the stock market’s earnings momentum is rising rapidly. “It takes time to recover confidence in the economic recovery, but this will not take too long,” Lee said. “KOSPI’s corporate profit outlook is continuing to be upwardly adjusted.”

The operating profit and net profit forecasts for 2021 exceeded 179 trillion won and 126 trillion won, respectively. It is expected that KOSPI’s corporate profits are hitting the highest level beyond the historical high.

As the Korean Corona 19 vaccination began on the 26th of last month, it is necessary to watch this. Young-hwan Kim, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “The government aims to vaccinate 1.3 million people in March and 70% of the nation’s population by September.” “Israel, which has the highest vaccination rate in the world (50% vaccination rate), is shopping malls and commercial facilities. , Gym and hotel events are allowed. The UK, which has an inoculation rate of 26%, is scheduled to lift all blockades by June, starting from the 8th and starting school again.”

The advice is that as the KOSPI undergoes an adjustment and volatility increases, it should be used as a buying opportunity. Researcher Kim suggested, “When adjusting for cost variables such as interest rates, it is effective to respond to split purchases,” and suggested that “domestic sectors are advised to keep in mind improving the sentiment of domestic consumption after vaccination.”

Meanwhile, semiconductors, automobiles, and distribution were selected as the sectors of interest, and the KOSPI weekly band next week was forecast to line 2950~3150. One researcher suggested, “In the 2900 fleet, it is a good time to respond with split buying, focusing on the semiconductor and cyclical industries.”

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