[단독]After completing the safety diagnosis, 50,000 reconstructions ‘passed’ in two months… 5 times the last 5 years

The first step in the reconstruction of 32 places… Yangcheon-gu’s highest yearly occupancy volume Exceeds the city’s supply and demand breath Suseo 1-Sampoong, etc. Prepare for re-entry of drop-out complexes

After safety diagnosis regulations, which were considered the ‘reconstruction nail’, were eased in January this year, it was found that 53,800 reconstructed apartments across Seoul passed safety inspections. The quantity, which far exceeds the average annual occupancy volume of 45,000 units in Seoul (average between 2018 and 2022), took the first step in supply within two months of deregulation. Analysts say that it has opened the way for smooth housing supply in the core areas of Seoul.

● Pass through Mokdong, Songpa, and Nowon in succession

The Dong-A Ilbo conducted a survey of 25 districts in Seoul on the 9th and found that a total of 53,800 units in 32 complexes passed safety inspections from January 5 to February 28 of this year, when safety inspection regulations were eased. This is five times the number of complexes (10,948) that passed the safety diagnosis over the five years (March 2018 to November last year) when the existing standards were applied. Go Joon-seok, CEO of JEdu Investment Advisory, said, “The size of the complex that passed the safety inspection this time is half the size of the Bundang New Town, which has about 100,000 units.”

Reconstruction safety inspections were significantly strengthened in March 2018 during the Moon Jae-in administration. At the end of last year, the government lowered the structural safety score announced by the government in January this year from 50% to 30%, and the ratio of residential environment and facility deterioration score so that complexes with poor parking lots or old plumbing facilities can easily pass the safety diagnosis. were alleviated by increasing each to 30%.

As for the number of apartments that passed the safety inspection this time, Yangcheon-gu (13 complexes, 25,493 units) had the most, followed by Songpa-gu (5 complexes, 11,300 units) and Nowon-gu (6 complexes, 9711 units). It is mainly an area where old complexes older than 30 years are concentrated.

● Just a ‘re-challenge’ that failed in the past… The market is also dreaming

The complexes that failed the safety examination in the past are also preparing for a ‘relapse’, so the number of complexes that pass the safety examination is expected to increase. Suseo 1 Complex in Irwon-dong, Gangnam-gu passed a preliminary safety inspection last month. Kwangjanggeukdong Apartment in Gwangjang-dong, Gwangjin-gu applied for a detailed safety diagnosis again in three years after 2020. Sampoong Apartment in Seocho-dong, Seocho-gu, and Godeok Jugong Complex 5 in Myeongil-dong, Gangdong-gu, a large complex of 2,390 houses near Legal Town in Seocho-gu, are raising funds for detailed safety diagnosis.

In the Songpa-gu and Yangcheon-gu areas, an upward trend in prices is also being detected. The 84 square meter Olympic Family Town in Munjeong-dong, Songpa-gu, which passed the safety inspection earlier this year, was sold at a price of over 200 million won, from 1.41 billion won in January this year to 1.63 billion won in February. A nearby real estate agent said, “The owner of the exclusive 118㎡ landlord offered the house for 1.75 billion won and almost went to the contract, but when the number of buyers increased due to passing the safety diagnosis, he sold it at 30 million won.” An authorized brokerage office in Mok-dong, Yangcheon-gu said, “Yangcheon-gu is a land transaction permission zone, so only actual residents can buy, but there were several customers who visited directly saying that they would buy with a jeonse when the regulations were lifted.”

● Although supply has been cut, variables such as high interest rates and construction costs

These complexes see the period of real estate market slump as the right time to promote reconstruction and are starting a ‘speed war’. The entire area of ​​14 new town apartment complexes in Mok-dong, Yangcheon-gu, where the ‘district unit plan’ for the entire reconstruction complex has been finalized, is busy receiving consent forms or raising service fees to establish a maintenance plan, which is the next step. The district unit plan is a kind of master plan, and refers to development guidelines that stipulate the layout of infrastructure such as roads and parks and the floor area ratio. In some complexes, placards such as ‘If the consent form is submitted late, the move-in will be delayed’, etc., are encouraged to submit the consent form.

Experts pointed out that although the easing of safety diagnosis regulations opened the way to housing supply, which was lacking in the core of downtown Seoul, there are not a few variables such as interest rate hikes, rising construction costs, and the redemption of excess profits from reconstruction. The higher the interest rate, the higher the interest burden associated with business loans. As raw material prices soared, construction costs continued to rise. This means that the cost that residents have to bear increases.

For this reason, some complexes are considering a plan to promote reconstruction through a trust method. It is known that about 90% of the owners voted for Shinwol Siyeong in Shinwol-dong, Yangcheon-gu, which passed a safety inspection in January this year. The owner of this complex said, “There are many concerns that if the cooperative promotes itself, the project may be delayed due to conflicts with the construction company or corruption of the union, such as the reconstruction of Dunchon Jugong.”

Baek Joon, CEO of J&K Urban Maintenance, said, “The project is carried out by setting the period from passing the safety diagnosis to moving to 5 years, but in reality, it often takes up to 10 years.” It can be,” he said.

Reporter Lee Buk-bok bless@donga.com
Reporter Song Jin-ho jino@donga.com