[다음주 경제] Will KDI lower Korea’s economic growth rate again?

Delivery time2024-11-09 09:16

Employment, household loans, and import and export prices are also of interest in October.

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporters Ho-kyung Ho, Lee Yul, and Jun-seo Lee = Next week (November 11-15), the latest diagnosis from a national research institute on the Korean economy will be released, and statistics on jobs, household loans, and import and export prices from last month will also be released.

[그래픽] Economic growth rate trend

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Min-ji = The Bank of Korea announced on the 24th that the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (compared to the previous quarter, preliminary value) in the third quarter was calculated to be 0.1%. minfo@yna.co.kr X (Twitter) @yonhap_graphics Facebook tuney.kr/LeYN1

First, the Korea Development Institute (KDI) will release its ‘Second Half Economic Outlook’ on the 12th.

As uncertainty in the global economy grows and the growth rate of the Korean economy is under pressure to adjust downward, attention is being paid to whether expectations will be lowered further.

The fact that the US’s ‘Trump second term’ has become a reality is also considered a negative variable in macro indicators.

Previously, KDI lowered its domestic growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage points from 2.6% to 2.5% in its ‘Revised Economic Outlook’ last August.

On the 15th, the ‘Recent Economic Trends’ (Green Book) containing the Ministry of Strategy and Finance’s own economic diagnosis will also be announced.

[그래픽] Employment trend

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Young-eun = According to the ‘September Employment Trends’ announced by Statistics Korea on the 16th, the number of employed people aged 15 or older was 28.842 million last month, an increase of 144,000 from the same month last year. By industry, jobs in the construction industry decreased by 100,000. 0eun@yna.co.kr

Statistics Korea will release ‘October Employment Trends’ on the 13th. By industry, the construction industry and by age group, the employment trend continues to decline, especially among the youth.

However, the increase of 100,000 people is maintained, especially in jobs for the elderly. Previously, the number of employed people in September increased by 140,000 from a year ago, increasing by 100,000 for the third month in a row.

On the 12th, the financial authorities announce trends in household loans across the financial sector last month.

While the household loans of the five major banks (KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, and NH Nonghyup) in October only increased by KRW 1.1141 trillion compared to the previous month, attention is being paid to how much of a balloon effect there will be for second-tier financial institutions.

Financial Services Commission Chairman Kim Byeong-hwan said that the increase in household loans in October is expected to increase compared to September.

Household loans across the financial sector, including banks and secondary financial institutions, increased by 5.2 trillion won in September. The increase has decreased compared to August, when it increased by 9.7 trillion won.

It is noteworthy whether the delinquency rate of bank loans will continue to rise.

[그래픽] Trends of increase and decrease in household loans from the five major banks

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Min-ji = According to the financial sector on the 1st, the household loan balance of the five major banks (KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, and NH Nonghyup) at the end of October was 732.812 trillion won, and at the end of September (730 trillion won) It increased by KRW 1.1141 trillion from KRW 967.1 billion, and the growth rate slowed compared to the previous month. minfo@yna.co.kr X (Twitter) @yonhap_graphics Facebook tuney.kr/LeYN1

On the 15th, the financial authorities will disclose the delinquency rate of Korean won loans of domestic banks as of the end of September. As of the end of August, the delinquency rate of domestic banks’ won-denominated loans (based on overdue principal and interest payments for more than one month) was 0.53%, up 0.06 percentage points (p) from the end of the previous month (0.47%).

The Bank of Korea announces the ‘October import/export price index and trade index (provisional)’ on the 13th.

Previously, in September, the import price index (135.19) was 2.2% lower than in August, maintaining a downward trend for two consecutive months.

This is because the average won/dollar exchange rate in September (1,334.82 won) fell 1.4% from the previous month, and the monthly average Dubai oil price ($73.52 per barrel) also fell 5.3%.

However, as the won/dollar exchange rate rose in October due to the possibility of former President Trump’s re-election, attention is being paid to whether the import price index may also have rebounded. When import prices rise, it has a negative impact on domestic consumer prices.

[그래픽] Import and export price trends

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Min-ji = As international oil prices and the won/dollar exchange rate fell last month, Korea’s import and export prices also fell. According to the ‘August export-import price index and trade index’ data released by the Bank of Korea on the 13th, the import price index in August (provisional value in won, 2020 level 100) was 138.33, down 3.5% from July (143.28). minfo@yna.co.kr X (Twitter) @yonhap_graphics Facebook tuney.kr/LeYN1

shk999@yna.co.kr, yulsid@yna.co.kr, jun@yna.co.kr

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2024/11/09 09:16 Sent