〈After the Mainland and Hong Kong Opening〉The RMB surged and the Hong Kong stock market soared | Anue Juheng – Hong Kong stocks

The three major indexes of China’s A-share market all closed higher on Monday (20th). The Hong Kong stock market surged, and the gains were offshore.RMBThe exchange rate rose against the U.S. dollar on MondayRMB 7.17 yuan mark, up nearly 470 points, onshoreRMBSynchronous appreciation.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.46% at 3,068.32 points on Monday, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.43% at 10,022.7 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.32% at 1,992.97 points. The total trading volume of the two citiesRMB 927.3 billion yuan, with a net inflow of “northbound funds” of 1.373 billion yuan.

Agriculture, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, petroleum, real estate, wine and other stocks rose, and groups such as cultivated diamonds, robots, satellite navigation, and diet pills were active.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed up 1.86% on Monday at 17,778.07 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index surged 2.45% to 4,077.58 points.

Fiona Lim, senior foreign exchange analyst at Malayan Banking, said that like most Asian currencies,RMBThe exchange rate may have passed a turning point.Although China’s economic weakness has led toRMBFacing some downward pressure, the policy differences between the central banks of the United States and China have also given rise toRMBBringing very obvious cyclical pressure.

Guojin Securities believes that the rapid weakening of the U.S. dollar isRMBThe direct driver of exchange rate appreciation.dollar indexIt has fallen sharply since late October and is approaching the 100 mark. Monday 9:30 Taiwan time,dollar indexreported 103.886.

The fall in the dollar is the result of three factors: the easing of supply-side shocks to U.S. debt, weak economic data, and easing of speculative disturbances. Guojin Securities wrote in the report:

First, the supply-side shock to U.S. debt has eased. The US Treasury Department expects net debt issuance to fall to US$776 billion, US$76 billion less than its July estimate.

Second, economic data are weak and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dovish attitude; the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Non-Farm Employment Report, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and other data released successively in November were not as good as market expectations. Market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year are gradually rising.

Third, speculative disturbances have eased, and non-commercial short positions in U.S. debt have dropped significantly.

Monarch Securities said,RMBBehind the appreciation, in addition to the external support of the expected end of the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle, there is also the central parity.The central parity rate serves as a “stabilizer” for the foreign exchange market and is shorting offshoreRMBIn the context of cost reduction, theRMBForm strong support.

According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center,RMBThe central parity rate against the US dollar increased by 116 points to 7.1612 yuan, setting a record since August.