〈After the Hong Kong Market Opens〉The “National Team” entered the market to protect the central enterprises technology index ETF, and the trading volume increased rapidly | Anue Juheng-A shares

The three major indexes in China’s A-share market all closed higher on Monday (11th), with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3,000 points. The turnover of the Central Enterprise Technology Index ETF rapidly increased, becoming the latest sign that the “national team” has entered the market to protect the market.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.74% at 2,991.44 points on Monday, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.82% at 9,632.61 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.25% at 1,915.74 points; the total trading volume of the two citiesRMB 911.5 billion yuan, with a net outflow of “northbound funds” of 3.259 billion yuan.

Media stocks rose sharply, coal, securities companies, semiconductors, automobiles, insurance, banks and other groups rose, while brewing, food and beverage, lithium mining and other stocks fell.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed down 0.81% at 16,201.49 points on Monday, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.06% at 3,666.51 points.

The central enterprise technology index ETF suddenly rose sharply on Monday afternoon, and the trading volume increased rapidly.Among them, the trading volume of the Southern State-owned Enterprise Technology ETF grew particularly rapidly, closing up 2.61%, with a full-day trading volume exceedingRMB 580 million yuan, a record high.

In addition, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a Politburo meeting last Friday and stated that next year we must persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, establishing before breaking, and strengthening counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies.

Sichuan Finance Securities believes that making progress while maintaining stability will be the main tone of economic development next year, and “stabilizing growth” will still be the focus of work next year. It is estimated that gross domestic product (GDP) will still achieve a growth rate of about 5% next year.

Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the Politburo’s emphasis on “seeking progress while maintaining stability and promoting stability through progress” has increased the importance of “progress” and means that next year’s policy mix will be more active. With the global economy facing greater downward pressure next year and China’s real estate market operating weakly, the government needs to further enhance the counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustment power of macroeconomic policies.

Under the general direction of “seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, establishing first and breaking later”, the tone of fiscal and monetary policies is generally moderate, with more emphasis on “moderateness”. The Politburo pointed out: “A proactive fiscal policy must be ‘appropriate’ to intensify, improve quality and efficiency, and a prudent monetary policy must be flexible, ‘appropriate’, precise and effective.”

According to the judgment of West China Securities:

In terms of finance, next year’s deficit rate may be slightly lower than this year’s 3.8%, estimated to be around 3.5%, with a deficit size of approximatelyRMB 4.7 trillion yuan, and the scale of new local government special bonds is approximately 4.2 trillion yuan.

In terms of currency, it is estimated that there is room for a 0.5%-0.75% RRR cut, and the central bank may do so before the Spring Festival. Additionally, government officials are likely to keep policy rates (OMO and MLF) steady or cut them by around 10 basis points.

CITIC Construction Investment said that “prudent monetary policy must be flexible, appropriate, precise and effective.” The change of monetary policy from “precise and effective” to “precise and effective” may point to the need to revitalize more financial resources that are occupied inefficiently and increase funds. Usage efficiency.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that under the prospect that prices may still run at low levels in 2024, “flexibility and moderation” means that in order to boost domestic demand and support the resolution of local debt risks, the central bank may cut interest rates and RRR cuts again. And the probability of taking action is higher in the first half of the year.