[중앙시평] Time is not on President Yoon’s side.

Kang Won-taek, Professor, Department of Political Science and Diplomacy, Seoul National University

“crisis? “Crisis? What crisis?”

These words came to mind while watching President Yoon Seok-yeol‘s reaction to the political situation these days. Originally, this expression was directed at British Labor Prime Minister Callaghan. In 1978, British society was experiencing serious economic and social turmoil due to inflation and union strikes. This is the so-called ‘Winter of Discontent’. The public’s dissatisfaction with the situation at the time was so great that it was named as such, but Prime Minister Callaghan did not sympathize with the people’s dissatisfaction and difficulties. Rather, he said he did not agree that there was chaos. This insensitive response soon led to a vote of no confidence in the Cabinet by Parliament, and in the ensuing general election, the Labor Party handed over power to Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative Party.

Policy chaos, public sentiment shaken by controversy over denial
The President said, ‘What crisis?’ Just fold your arms
The ruling party, which has to hold elections, feels a sense of crisis
In relation to the ruling party, the president has already

As can be seen from the fact that the positive evaluation of the president’s job performance in various opinion polls has fallen to the low 20% range, public dissatisfaction with the Yoon Seok-yeol government’s administration of state affairs is high. Even though half of the term has passed, no policies have been clearly resolved. The fight with doctors is prolonged, but no solution is in sight, and promised reform policies in labor, pension, and education are sluggish. In this situation, various controversies surrounding the president’s wife that erupted one after another ignited already uncomfortable public sentiment. What’s more uncomfortable is the president’s complacency. Although public sentiment is fluctuating, President Yoon is unable to empathize with the seriousness of the issue and asks, ‘Crisis? They seem to be thinking, ‘What kind of crisis?’

Even if the President is looking at the situation insensitively, the ruling party cannot just watch with folded arms like they are watching the situation across the river. President Yoon may think of the ruling party as a support organization that should naturally support and follow him, but the ruling party’s cooperation with the president is not automatic. Once the president is elected, that’s it, but the situation of the ruling party, which must continue to face elections in the future, is different from that of the president. As can be seen from the People Power Party’s crushing defeat in the last National Assembly election, when public opinion toward the President deteriorates, the ruling party must bear the brunt of the results. Therefore, the ruling party has no choice but to respond sensitively to political crises. People in the presidential office may have no choice but to keep quiet if the president gets angry at something they don’t want to hear, but if the president doesn’t act even though public sentiment is dangerously fluctuating, the ruling party has no choice but to speak bitterly if it is to survive.

Yesterday, the president and the ruling party leader ‘finally’ met. As I watched the president’s attitude toward meeting with the ruling party leader, I wondered whether it would be this difficult for the president to meet with the ruling party leader. After the meeting was decided, I saw a lot of interest in it, but I wondered if it was something that would attract this much attention. President Yoon may have thought that he was ‘making concessions and meeting them,’ but in fact, time is not on the president’s side in the relationship between the president and the ruling party. As time goes by, the ruling party will try to differentiate itself from a president who is nearing the end of his term, especially an unpopular president. During the time of President Lee Myung-bak, there was a conflict between pro-Lee and pro-Park factions within the ruling party, and the division within the ruling party ultimately led to the frustration of the Sejong City Amendment Bill that President Lee had been pushing. President Lee suffered a political blow, but as the next candidate, Park Geun-hye clearly established an image of herself that differentiates herself from President Lee.

President Yoon, who is accustomed to a top-down hierarchical organization, may still regard the ruling party leader, who was once his subordinate, as such, but it is the president who desperately needs to ask for the ruling party’s help. Increasingly, the ruling party will not take its support for the president for granted. In a situation where the presidential veto is maintained with only 8 seats, maintaining amicable relations with the ruling party is the most important task for President Yoon to lead national affairs for the remainder of his term. There is no proper ‘gift’ that the president can give to keep them in. There will be no elections during President Yoon’s term, and it is not possible to distribute political funds like in the past. Ultimately, the president must first approach the ruling party in a humble manner.

The large opposition party’s attack on the volatile issue of the controversy involving the president’s wife will likely become stronger in the future, but what can really make it difficult for the president is when the ruling party turns its back on it. The president’s lame duck is not caused by the opposition party, but by the ruling party. As he gets closer to the end of his term, communication and cooperation with the ruling party become more important for the president. In particular, the president must be able to sympathize with the problem and resolve it when it comes to urgent issues where the ruling party feels a sense of crisis.

‘crisis? ‘What crisis?’ To return to the story, in Britain in the late 1970s the insensitivity of top political leaders ended with the Labor Party losing power. Callaghan also lost his position as prime minister. However, in our country, only the ruling party bears that responsibility. Even if he doesn’t want to admit it, the president has already taken the position of ‘B’ in his relationship with the ruling party.

Kang Won-taek, Professor, Department of Political Science and Diplomacy, Seoul National University