[정용수의 평양, 평양사람들] North Korea shakes up the security landscape of the Korean Peninsula with multiple cards

Jeong Yong-su, Director of Unification Culture Research Institute and Editorial Writer

October 23, 1940. Kim Il-sung, who led the Korean Revolutionary Army (2nd Army, 6th Company) of the Northeast Anti-Japanese Alliance, an anti-Japanese armed group belonging to the Chinese Communist Party, in the Manchuria region, crossed the border of the former Soviet Union via Hunchun, China. In his memoir 『With the Century』 (Volume 8), Kim Il-sung wrote, “This was to attend a conference held by the Communist International in the Far East.” However, the established theory is that the base was moved to the former Soviet Union to avoid a large-scale clearing operation by the Japanese Kwantung Army at the time.

Afterwards, Kim Il-sung stayed in the Vyatsk barracks near Khabarovsk, out of reach of the Japanese army, and traveled back and forth to Manchuria to engage in anti-Japanese armed activities before being liberated. Due to this relationship, Kim Il-sung benefited from the support and patronage of the Soviet Union and became North Korea’s supreme leader. Kim Il-sung recalled that he hesitated for a long time about attending the Comintern meeting and moving his base, but in the end, it was a good decision.

Kim Il-sung fled to the former Soviet Union in 1940.
84 years later, large-scale deployment of troops
Government considers providing weapons to Ukraine
Possibility of inter-Korean arms conflict due to Ukraine

Early this month, 84 years after Kim Il-sung crossed the border of the former Soviet Union, South Korean intelligence authorities detected a large-scale North Korean army entering Russian territory. The National Intelligence Service estimates that 1,500 members of the Storm Corps at the advance level are already undergoing local adaptation training in Russia, and that up to 12,000 will head to Russia. Unlike the time of Kim Il-sung, who moved his base to survive, Chairman Kim Jong-un has stepped forward to help Russia, which is struggling with the war in Ukraine. It feels like a world away from when he criticized the former Soviet Union as a revisionist in the 1960s and as a traitor in the 1980s.

Some Questions About North Korea’s Troop Dispatch to Russia

Amid rumors of North Korea sending troops to Russia, a released video shows North Korean soldiers receiving war supplies from Russia. [사진 SPRAVDI 페이스북 캡처 ]

North Korea and Russia officially deny sending North Korean troops, calling cooperation between the two countries a “sovereign issue.” Nevertheless, evidence of the North Korean military’s deployment to Russia continues. These include satellite photos of Russian ships carrying North Korean troops and videos of North Korean troops lining up to receive war supplies in what is believed to be Russian territory. A questionnaire for Russia to request North Korean military uniform and hat sizes was also released. It is true that some questions remain during this process.

The font printed on the questionnaire is similar to the Hamchorong Batang font of Hangeul below developed by a domestic company. It is not confirmed whether the Korean language below is used in Russia or North Korea. Also, the questionnaire says ‘Russia’, but both North Korea and Russia use the expression ‘Russia’ when writing ‘Russia’ in Korean. It is questionable whether it was a simple mistake on the part of the questionnaire writer or an incident that occurred while using Google Translator.

With winter approaching, it is also a mystery that the recently released questionnaire calls for applications for summer hats and military uniforms. There is also a questionnaire regarding winter supplies, but only part of it has been released, or it may be a pre-application with a long-term war in mind, or the deployment of North Korean troops next summer.

The United States, which possesses the world’s highest level of intelligence, is taking a cautious stance, saying, “The evidence is correct that there are North Korean troops in Russia,” but using the hypothetical, “If the reports (North Korean troops participating in the Russian War) are true, it is a worrisome situation.” John Kirby, National Security Communications Advisor to the White House National Security Council (NSC), also said on the 21st (local time), “We are continuing to investigate these reports.” The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) also has reservations, saying it will listen to detailed explanations from Korean officials early next week and make a statement. These questions are expected to be resolved as the United States says it will soon release the results of its own investigation.

Will it turn into an indirect war between North and South Korea?
Above all, what raises questions about the North Korean military’s dispatch of troops is whether Russia, which has the world’s second-largest military power, needs large-scale military support from the North Korean military. It is difficult to understand why Chairman Kim, who advocates love for the people as his motto, is also desperate enough to send soldiers into a battlefield where large-scale casualties are inevitable. The Defense Intelligence Headquarters believes that North Korea has about 200 military factories operating at full capacity. If this move is to manufacture weapons for export to Russia, then North Korea is already enjoying a special advantage in war.

North Korea has experience sending pilots and other troops to the Vietnam War and the Yom Kirv War (Egypt), albeit on a small scale. Military instructors and military advisors have also been sent to African countries where there were frequent civil wars. Nevertheless, the reason the international community is raising concerns about North Korea’s deployment of troops this time is because it defines the war in Ukraine as an illegal war. Moreover, the UN Security Council prohibits military cooperation with North Korea, which is why Russia, a UN permanent member, blatantly violates this ban.

North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia is no stranger to the fact that it is a direct threat to the Korean Peninsula. The war in Ukraine is a modern war using drones and Starlink satellites. If North Korea applies its experience of fighting such a cutting-edge war, even at the cost of large-scale damage, to its military doctrine, the threat to South Korea will inevitably increase. Moreover, if North Korea’s participation in the current war is the result of the automatic intervention clause in the ‘Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ signed with Russia last June, there is a justification for the automatic participation of the Russian military in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula. If cash or cutting-edge military technology flows to North Korea in exchange for the North Korean military’s deployment, sanctions against North Korea will be useless, and the Korean Peninsula could fall into uncontrollable turbulence.

The government announced a step-by-step response. Minister of Foreign Affairs Cho Tae-yeol attended the ‘2024 Central Forum’ held on the 23rd and emphasized, “North Korea must recognize that responsibility under international criminal law may be imposed depending on the specific actions of the troops dispatched.” It is a warning that in some cases, Chairman Kim, whom North Korea regards as a divine being, could become a war criminal. The government is also prepared to support weapons of mass destruction, such as artillery shells, if necessary. In this case, a situation could arise where North and South Korean weapons are exchanged on the battlefield in Ukraine.

North Korea is waving multiple cards at the same time to the international community. They call for the dispatch of troops to the North and the infiltration of drones by the South Korean military towards South Korea, even raising a nuclear threat. On the 23rd, two weeks before the US presidential election, Chairman Kim’s visit to the strategic missile unit was also made public. North Korea considers nuclear weapons to be an all-purpose sword and is waving a three-piece set, but there is no telling when North Korea and Russia may have a ‘renegade’ relationship. Just as Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il turned their backs on the former Soviet Union, and Chairman Kim turned from relying on China.

Jeong Yong-su, Director of Unification Culture Research Institute and Editorial Writer