[이철희 칼럼]Kim Jong-un fell into the ‘Putin quagmire’ due to the ‘Trump gamble’ | Dong-A Ilbo

Trump’s ‘Ukraine war plan’ is a gamble
Last-minute ‘spoon-loading’ with North Korean troops dispatched
A ‘bullet-catching’ adventure in the fog of uncertainty
‘Master of manipulation’ asked about Putin’s trap

Lee Cheol-hee, Editorial Writer Bob Woodward, a special reporter on the Watergate incident, wrote in his new book ‘War’ that former President Donald Trump continued to contact President Vladimir Putin even after leaving office. Trump cited an aide who said he had probably spoken to Putin seven times since leaving the White House in 2021, raising the possibility that they discussed ending the war in Ukraine. Unqualified diplomacy, in which American citizens negotiate with foreign countries in conflict without government approval, is a violation of the Logan Act.

Of course, both the Trump presidential campaign and the Russian Kremlin immediately denied it. However, Trump actually avoided giving a direct answer during the media interview and consistently gave strange answers. When asked to answer yes or no whether he spoke to Putin after leaving office, Trump said, “I won’t mention it.” However, if I did it, it could be said to be a smart thing. “That is a good thing, not a bad thing.”

The strange bromance between Trump and Putin, especially Trump’s love for Putin, who always approaches Putin and never speaks ill of him, remains an unsolvable mystery even to U.S. intelligence authorities. Some find the reason for this in Putin’s ability to co-opt a former spy who charms and scares opponents, while others find the reason in Trump’s background in which he developed respect for a violent killer.

Trump also praised Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022, calling it “genius” and “skilled.” He then said that if he had been president, there would never have been a war, and that it was all President Joe Biden’s incompetence. Furthermore, he has assured that if he becomes president, he will end the war ‘within 24 hours’ and ‘with one phone call.’ Regarding specific plans, he kept quiet and said, “If it becomes known, it will fail.”

President Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan strongly criticized this. “If Trump had been president, there probably wouldn’t have been a war in Ukraine. Why? Because Putin will already be in Kiev (the Ukrainian capital). Trump would have welcomed Putin right away. “When it comes to dictators, Trump’s basic idea is to let them do whatever they want.”

In fact, if we look at the plan that Trump’s running mate, Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance, recently announced, Trump’s return to the White House would be a disaster for Ukraine. The idea is to freeze the war by creating a demilitarized zone based on the current battle lines and neutralizing Ukraine. Such a plan, which would give up the recovery of lost territory and exclude joining the Western alliance, would require Ukraine to sign a surrender document. It’s no different.

The results of the US presidential election, which will be revealed as early as tomorrow, are a critical turning point that will determine the future direction of the world order, especially the war in Ukraine. Even if Trump is elected, it will be difficult to bring about an end to the war within a day, let alone a few weeks or months. However, the results of this US presidential election will largely determine whether the war, which has continued for over two and a half years, will lead to an endless war, or to a contest that precedes the previous ‘drawing of the line’.

Kim Jong-un’s dispatch of North Korean troops is a gamble made right before this critical period. It may have been with the intention of gaining a share at the last minute, but looking at the current situation in Ukraine, such a calculation may work. Russia once lost an area twice the size of Seoul in its Kursk region due to a surprise attack by the Ukrainian army, but has now regained half of it. On the eastern front in Ukraine, the war continues to be stalemate despite superiority. So you may have thought that all you had to do was add a spoonful.

However, the battlefield where the North Korean army will be sent is an unfamiliar environment in the Great Plains, which is completely different from the mountainous terrain of the Korean Peninsula. The war in Ukraine is gradually transforming into an all-out war, with a mix of cutting-edge and old-fashioned warfare, including precision bombing and drone warfare, nuclear threats, trench warfare, and mercenary warfare. Moreover, the North Korean military is likely to become a cannon fodder for Russian-style offensive operations that treat soldiers as expendables. It is questionable whether Kim Jong-un had in mind the typhoon of system instability that would be caused by the agitation of residents who saw the body of a soldier brought in.

It is said that North Korean troops have already been deployed to the Kursk region and will be deployed to the front lines within a few days. The timing and intensity of actual participation may vary depending on the results of the U.S. presidential election, but it will be difficult to withdraw now. War is a realm of endless uncertainty. Kim Jong-un threw his soldiers into the fog of the battlefield. The first results that will determine the future of Kim Jong-un’s heartless gamble will be released soon. It won’t be possible to tell right away whether it will be a huge hit or a hit. In particular, it remains to be seen whether Kim Jong-un fell into the trap set by Putin, the ‘master of manipulation’, using the Trump gambling table as bait.

Cheolhee Lee’s Column >

SubscribeSubscribe

I also recommend these subscriptions!

• 

  Stay healthy today too

• 

  Lim Yong-han’s war history

• 

  At Gwanghwamun

Editorial Writer Lee Cheol-hee klimt@donga.com

• great
  0dog

• I’m sad
  0dog

• I’m angry
  0dog

• I recommend it
  dog