![[상보]In the US New York stock market, does the Dow-S&P-NASDAQ upward rally reflect the possibility of a Trump victory?](https://i0.wp.com/www.socialvalue.kr/news/data/20241019/p1065558828117985_606_thum.jpg?fit=%2C "[상보]In the US New York stock market, does the Dow-S&P-NASDAQ upward rally reflect the possibility of a Trump victory?")
Recently, the stock market has shown a rare trend in a presidential election year.
“This may be because the victory of former President Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, was already reflected.”
“Trump’s tax and regulatory policies are more pro-business.”
[소셜밸류=김완묵 기자] The New York stock market in the United States led the rise in stock prices, led by technology stocks, as the earnings announcement season began in earnest. Although there was a mixed trend during the day, there was a buying advantage at the end of the day, and the three major indices and the semiconductor index closed with a rise.
On the 18th (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 43,275.91, up 36.86 points (0.09%) from the previous day.
The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index closed at 5,864.67, up 23.20 points (0.40%) from the previous day, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, centered on technology stocks, closed at 18,489.55, up 115.94 points (0.63%) from the previous day. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 5,208.62, up 3.81 points (0.07%) from the previous day.
Major stocks included Apple up 1.2%, Nvidia up 0.7%, Microsoft 0.3%, Amazon.com up 0.7%, Google’s Alphabet up 0.3%, Netflix up 11.0%, and ASML up 3.2%. In comparison, Meta closed down 0.08%, Tesla down 0.09%, and ARM down 1.0%.
On this day, unlike the previous day, U.S. Treasury interest rates showed a downward trend throughout the day. As of 3:59 p.m. local time, the 10-year note is at 4.079%, down 0.017 percentage points (1.7 bp) from the previous day, and the 2-year note is at 3.950%, down 0.037 percentage points (3.7 bp) from the previous day.
According to foreign media and Yonhap News, strong performance reports from major companies have boosted the market. The market was generally calm that day, but the Dow broke its all-time intraday high for two days in a row and set a new closing record for three days in a row. The S&P 500 index also broke its record for the highest closing price in four days.
Even on a weekly basis, all three major indices continued their upward trend for six consecutive weeks. The Dow and S&P 500 indexes had their longest upward march this year. On this day, the strong performance of Netflix, the world’s largest video streaming service company, served as a driving force in the rise of the communication service industry and the overall market.
Netflix’s stock price, which presented a bright outlook with solid performance that exceeded market expectations after the market closed the previous day, closed at $763.89, up 11.09% from the previous day. Intuitive Surgical, the manufacturer of the surgical robot ‘Da Vinci’, also surged 10.01% in its stock price thanks to a strong performance report in which both sales and earnings per share (EPS) exceeded market expectations.
American Express, a large financial services company, revealed that its adjusted earnings per share ($3.49) exceeded market expectations ($3.29), but its sales fell short of market expectations, causing its stock price to drop 3.15%.
According to FactSet, more than 70 S&P 500 companies have released their third quarter results so far, and 75% of them have exceeded market expectations. However, Bespoke Investment Group analyst Paul Hickey pointed out that among companies that have already announced earnings this season, more companies lowered their guidance than raised it.
CVS, one of the two largest pharmacy chains in the U.S., fell 5.23% in its stock price when it replaced its CEO amid financial difficulties. Apple’s stock price rose thanks to reports that sales of the iPhone 16 in the Chinese market were strong.
“Market volatility is expected to increase ahead of the presidential election, but stocks may continue to rally into November,” said Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory. He explained, “Recently, the stock market is a rare market in a presidential election year,” and “Generally, the market stagnates ahead of the presidential election and then recovers after the election.” He added, “The recent market rally may be due to the victory of former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate,” and added, “Trump’s tax and regulatory policies are more pro-business.”
The economic indicators announced on this day were somewhat sluggish. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the number of new housing starts in September was 1.354 million, down 0.5% from the previous month. The number of housing starts, which had shown a sharp increase in the previous month, has turned into a decline. The number of new housing construction permits, which is an indicator of the future housing economy, also decreased. The number of new housing construction permits in September was 1,428,000, a 2.9% decrease compared to the previous month.
While there is a lot of interest in the speed of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Rafiel Bostic said on this day, “There is no need for the Federal Reserve to rush toward the neutral interest rate,” and “patiently.” “We have to move,” he said. Previously, Governor Bostic expected that the Federal Reserve would cut the benchmark interest rate by an additional 25 basis points once within the year.
According to the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Derivatives Exchange Group (CME Group), the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by an additional 25 basis points in November is 92.9%, and the probability of freezing it at the current level (4.75-5.00%) is 7.1%. reflected.
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