[미국 대선 르포] “No more 4 years of Trump” Record early voting turnout… Loss of black support is a variable

Report on the U.S. presidential election battleground state of Georgia

Kamala Harris is campaigning at the Lakewood Amphitheater in Atlanta, Georgia on the 19th (local time). Atlanta, Georgia | Correspondent Yujin Kim”/>

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is campaigning at the Lakewood Amphitheater in Atlanta, Georgia on the 19th (local time). Atlanta, Georgia | Correspondent Yujin Kim

“Trump’s first four years were terrible. “I don’t even want to imagine four more years.”

Atlanta, Georgia, USA on the 19th (local time). Supporters who attended Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ campaign rally held at the Lakewood Amphitheater, a popular performance spot for world-renowned pop stars, said this as if they had made a promise. Although we are not 100% satisfied with Vice President Harris, who was President Joe Biden’s ‘national affairs partner’, we must at least prevent Republican candidate former President Donald Trump from coming back to power.

Vice President Harris, who traveled to two battleground states this morning, from Detroit, Michigan to Georgia, encouraged voting participation and targeted ‘anti-Trump’ sentiment, saying, “Republicans and independents are also concerned about Trump.” He also promised to protect reproductive rights and said, “The government should not say this or that about women’s bodies.” This is an issue that Democratic Party supporters, including women, consider important in Georgia, which has restricted abortion after six weeks of pregnancy by law after the Supreme Court abolished the right to abortion in 2022.

The audience, which even filled the outdoor grass stage, followed Vice President Harris and chanted “We will win (in November)” and “We will not go back.”

A sign supporting Republican candidate Donald Trump is erected in front of an early voting center in Duluth, Gwinnett County, Georgia, on the 19th (local time). Duluth, Georgia | Correspondent Yujin Kim

Georgia, which is in the southern sunbelt with a warm climate (the south with a lot of sunlight), is a key battleground with 16 electoral votes, the second largest after Pennsylvania (19), along with North Carolina. As early voting began on the 15th, enthusiasm surrounding the election was growing.

There was a steady flow of voters to the early voting centers in Cobb County and Gwinnett County, a suburb of Atlanta, that day. An election official in Duluth, Gwinnett County, where many Asians, including Koreans, live, said, “Considering that it is a weekend, the number is not small at all,” and added, “It definitely seems to be hotter than usual.” In fact, as of the previous day, 1.2 million (17%) voters participated in early voting, which was twice the number during the same period of the 2020 presidential election, which was the highest ever.

It has been generally believed that a high voter turnout is advantageous to the Democratic Party. However, some point out that it is difficult to gauge the situation in a closely contested race like this presidential election. Currently, according to the results of analysis of average opinion polls such as Real Clear Politics, former President Trump is ahead of Vice President Harris by about 1 percentage point in Georgia. As with other competing races, a very close match will follow.

During the 2020 presidential election, the approval rating gap between President Biden, who won in Georgia, and former President Trump was 0.23 percentage points (11,779 votes). However, it was the first victory in Georgia for a Democratic candidate since former President Bill Clinton in 1992.

It is analyzed that the change in population composition in the suburban areas of Atlanta, the largest city, had a significant impact on the transformation of the Republican Party into a swing state. As the influx of immigrants, including people of color, and highly educated people increases, the conservative tone has become lighter. Among them, the votes of Cobb County, which has a high racial diversity, including 30% black, 15% Hispanic, and 6% Asian, as of 2020, attract attention. This is because the proportion of people of color has increased rapidly over the past 20 years, and the Democratic Party candidate won the 2016 presidential election, unlike before.

Among the people of color I met that day at the early voting booth and supermarket in Marietta, a small city in Cobb County, there were many Democratic Party supporters. A black woman in her 40s who requested anonymity said, “I voted for Harris because of women’s right to choose (including reproductive rights). “If Trump returns, women’s rights will hit rock bottom,” he said. Casey Low (53), a Taiwanese immigrant, said, “Trump is only interested in cutting taxes for the wealthy and has no policies for the middle class.” On the other hand, Errol Baker (80), a white man who works as a heavy equipment technician, said, “Jobs have decreased and illegal immigrants are free riding. “Trump will take it all back,” he said.

Another factor that makes it difficult to predict the outcome in Georgia is the growing dissent among black men, the Democratic Party’s traditional support base. In particular, as black men of the younger generation are relatively more exposed to hardships such as inflation, unemployment, and housing shortages, the sentiment of “what has the Biden administration done for us” has taken hold. Former President Trump and the Republican Party are also actively targeting this sentiment.

Although it is not said openly, psychological resistance to the first female president is also a factor that cannot be ignored. Dominic, a black man in his 20s whom I met in downtown Atlanta, said, “I’m not like that, but it’s true that there is still a culture among black men that opposes women taking the lead.”

In this presidential election, the Democratic Party, which is aiming to win over Georgia, is focusing its efforts on winning black votes. Vice President Harris plans to visit Atlanta again to campaign with former President Barack Obama on the 24th, and on the 28th, former President Obama’s wife, Michelle, will campaign to encourage voting participation.

The appearance of black male singer Usher at Vice President Harris’ campaign rally on this day appears to be part of an effort to target black voters. Tyler Lee, a Korean high school student who was in charge of introducing Vice President Harris to the stage, received loud applause by shouting, “Georgia, we cannot afford to go back to the past.”

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is campaigning at the Lakewood Amphitheater in Atlanta, Georgia on the 19th (local time). Atlanta, Georgia | Correspondent Yujin Kim

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is campaigning at the Lakewood Amphitheater in Atlanta, Georgia on the 19th (local time). Atlanta, Georgia | Correspondent Yujin Kim