[뉴욕다이어리]China becomes more urgent due to Trump 2.0… Korea is an opportunity

Has China’s tone turned back to ‘Tao Guang Yang Hui’? China, which has been trying to rule over the past few years by shouting about ‘launching the continent’, is now bowing its head and reaching out to neighboring countries.

There is analysis that China’s diplomatic stance has changed in light of China’s recent visa-free entry policy targeting major countries. China allowed visa-free entry to 29 countries, including Korea, this month, and a few days ago increased the number of visa-free countries to 9 more. Chinese President Xi Jinping is also emphasizing peaceful coexistence. At this month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, President Xi is emphasizing his will to cooperate by mentioning ‘gudongjon-i’ (求同存異), which means ‘find common ground and leave differences alone’ to U.S. President Joe Biden. In addition, there are predictions that President Xi, who has been absent from Korea for over 10 years since visiting Korea in July 2014 before the so-called ‘THAAD incident’, will visit Korea next year. This is a drastic policy change considering that China, until recently, had been fighting with Japan, Australia, Norway, etc. by pursuing so-called “wolf warrior” diplomacy, which refers to blatant Chinese-style coercive diplomacy.

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Two factors are cited as the background to China’s sudden change in its efforts to improve relations with neighboring countries. There is an analysis that external variables, such as the return of US President-elect Donald Trump to the White House, who predicted a hard-line policy against China, and internal variables, such as the Chinese economy, which is in a recession, have led to changes in foreign policy. First, looking at the foreign and security policy lines of Trump’s second term, the level of pressure on China is expected to be further strengthened over the next few years. Senator Marco Rubio, who will serve as Secretary of State, and Representative Mike Waltz, who will serve as White House National Security Advisor, are both public hawks. Rep. Rubio led the bill to ban TikTok, a Chinese video sharing platform. Rep. Waltz also said, “We are in a cold war with the Chinese Communist Party,” and argued that we must end conflicts with Europe and the Middle East and confront the greater threat from China.

Previously, in keeping public in check, President Biden adopted a ‘narrow yard, high fence’ strategy of working with allies and partners to select and pressure risk factors such as cutting-edge technology, rather than full-scale economic and trade decoupling (decoupling). On the other hand, President-elect Trump is likely to put pressure on China in a harsher and more comprehensive way, such as imposing a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. After taking office in January next year, he is expected to quickly conclude the Middle East conflict and the war between Russia and Ukraine and then focus most of his military and diplomatic capabilities on putting pressure on China. From China’s perspective, which is no match for the United States, it has no choice but to overcome the pressure from the United States based on improved relations with neighboring countries and multilateral alliances.

Recession is also one of the main reasons for the change in China’s policy stance. China’s economic growth rate in the third quarter of this year was only 4.6%, and the emergency light has been turned on to achieve the annual target of around 5% growth rate. There are also a variety of problems, including high youth unemployment, astronomical local government debt, and deepening asset inequality. Global anti-China sentiment that has increased since the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical uncertainty due to deepening global conflicts are also making it difficult for China. In the end, the change in China’s foreign policy stance can be seen as not being based on ideal goals such as global cooperation, but due to internal and external circumstances that have made it difficult to achieve the ‘Chinese Dream’ and put the country under control.

How should our country respond? Many American experts that the reporter met and interviewed after the presidential election on the 5th diagnosed that the competition for hegemony between the United States and China, which will accelerate in Trump’s second term, is an ‘opportunity’ for Korea. Robert Z. Lawrence, a professor at Harvard Kennedy School and a leading expert on international trade and commerce in the United States, said that Korea is in an optimal position to reduce its economic dependence on China and further strengthen economic cooperation with the United States while maintaining friendly relations with both countries. He advised. The possibility of President Xi’s first visit to Korea in 11 years and the message of cooperation in the shipbuilding field sent by President-elect Trump in his first phone call with President Yoon Seok-yeol signify our strategic importance to both the United States and China. In Trump’s second term, he emphasized the importance of the ROK-US alliance, which shares security cooperation and values, and further strengthened economic cooperation with the United States, while improving relations with China, which was cornered, by considering the old adage, ‘nine the stomach and the sword’. , you need a strategy to take advantage.

New York = Correspondent Haeyoung Kwon roguehy@asiae.co.kr

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**To what extent ‌do experts believe China’s shift ⁢towards “Tao Guang ‍Yang Hui” diplomacy is a genuine strategic recalibration or a temporary ‌tactic ⁢to mitigate external pressures ?**

## Interview: China’s‍ “Tao⁣ Guang Yang Hui” – A Shift in Global Power Dynamics?

**Introduction:**

Good evening, and welcome to World Today News. Tonight, we discuss the recent shift in China’s diplomatic stance, analyzing its potential implications for‍ global⁣ politics and the role of South Korea ⁣in this evolving landscape. We are joined by two esteemed guests: Dr. [Guest 1 Name],⁣ a leading expert on Chinese​ foreign⁤ policy at [Guest 1 Affiliation], and Dr. [Guest 2 Name], an authority on international relations and Asian geopolitics at [Guest 2 Affiliation].

**Section 1: The Shift ⁢in Chinese ⁣Diplomacy**

**Host:** Dr. [Guest 1 Name], the article highlights a significant change in China’s ⁢approach, moving ⁤from ⁣assertive “wolf warrior” diplomacy to a more ⁤conciliatory tone. What are the key drivers behind this shift?

**Dr. [Guest 1 Name]:** Thank you. The ‌article rightly identifies both internal ⁣and ‌external pressures contributing to this change. Internally,‍ China is ⁢facing a slowing economy, high youth unemployment, and mounting debt. Externally, the prospect of ⁤a more hawkish Trump administration in the US sends a clear⁢ message⁤ that Beijing needs to ‌adjust its strategy.

**Host:** Dr. [Guest 2 Name], you’ve extensively studied the dynamics of the ⁤US-China⁢ relationship. How do you see‍ President-elect Trump’s ‍return impacting China’s calculations?

**Dr. [Guest 2 Name]: ** Trump’s second ‌term is likely to bring renewed pressure ‌on China, particularly in areas ‌like trade and technology. This serves as a catalyst for Beijing to look for avenues to alleviate‍ pressure, explaining their focus on strengthening‌ relations with neighboring countries.

**Section 2: ‍implications ​for Korea**

**Host:** This brings us to the role of South Korea. The article ⁣suggests a potential​ visit by President Xi Jinping, a development that signals Korea’s ​strategic ​importance. Dr.⁢ [Guest 1 Name], how should South ⁤Korea navigate this ⁢complex geopolitical landscape?

**Dr. [Guest 1 Name]:** Korea finds itself in a‍ unique ​position. Maintaining strong ‌ties with both the ​US and China requires‍ a delicate balancing act. Leveraging its economic ties with both superpowers, while advocating for closer regional cooperation and diplomacy, could prove ⁤beneficial.

**Host:** Dr. [Guest 2 Name], some argue that this presents an opportunity for Korea to enhance⁢ its regional influence. What are your thoughts?

**Dr. [Guest 2 Name]:**

Indeed,⁤ Korea has ⁣the potential to act as ‌a bridge between the US and China. By ‌fostering dialog and cooperation, Korea can contribute to regional stability and potentially mitigate‌ the risks of escalating tensions.

**Section ​3: Looking Ahead**

**Host:** Looking towards the future, what are the ⁣potential ramifications​ of this shift⁢ in Chinese ​diplomacy?

**Dr. [Guest 1 Name]:** ⁣ We may see China adopting a more pragmatic and collaborative approach in international forums while prioritizing economic partnerships. The success of this strategy hinges on its ability to manage its relationship with the US effectively.

**Dr. [Guest 2 Name]:** The global landscape is⁤ entering a period of significant uncertainty. The US-China competition will intensify, potentially leading to new alliances and shifting power dynamics. Korea’s strategic choices in the coming years will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the region and beyond.

**Conclusion:**

**Host:** Thank you ⁣both⁤ for offering your insightful perspectives on this‍ complex issue. The shift in⁤ Chinese diplomacy ⁣is sure to have far-reaching implications, requiring a⁤ nuanced understanding of the evolving global dynamics. As we navigate these uncertain times, a continued dialog and understanding between nations will be ⁢crucial in ensuring a peaceful and prosperous ​future for all.

This concludes‍ our program for tonight. ​Thank you for joining us⁢ on World Today News.