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The balance of votes transfer before the second round of presidential elections is favorable for Andrzej Duda

The balance of votes transferred before the second round of presidential elections is favorable for Andrzej Duda – writes Stanisław Janecki in the weekly of “Sieci”.

The journalist points out that the most important question before the second round of presidential elections is about who and how many votes will flow from candidates who did not enter it.

The problem is that although voters can be manipulated, imprinted to their preferences, mislead them, and even intimidated and blackmailed, they cannot be convinced that orange is the same as lemon, apple, kiwi, melon or strawberry . And the more it is not tomato, cucumber, potato or cabbage. Of course, political marketing macheres would like voters to be pawns and move freely, but it’s not that simple. These reservations are needed so as not to treat projections regarding the second round of presidential elections, supported by the power (advantage) of the media, and even implemented with the help of a large dose of symbolic violence and a smaller real portion, as something decided and largely deterministic. If that were the case, the first round winners’ duel would not be a free choice

– notes the author.

Trzaskowski’s victory over Hołownia and Biedron has some humiliating dimension – both for the candidates and their voters. The smaller one in the case of Biedronia voters, who in the first round mostly voted for Trzaskowski, instead of a candidate ideologically closer to them. But for some, Biedronia’s failure can be humiliating and they will not go to the polls. In the case of Szymon Hołownia’s voters, the transfer to Rafał Trzaskowski does not have to be obvious

– we read.

In the second round, the behavior of the Confederate voters may be crucial, not necessarily dependent on what Krzysztof Bosak said before the first round: “There is no chance that the Confederation will support Rafał Trzaskowski.” Officially, he may not support it, but unofficially we had such declarations as Jacek Wilk, for whom Trzaskowski was a real choice. It does not seem, however, that it is possible to transfer almost twice as much votes of the Confederation voters to Rafał Trzaskowski than to Andrzej Duda (as in the IBRIS survey). The problem is rather how many Confederate voters will not go to the polls in the second round and whether they will be more likely to vote for Duda than Trzaskowski. (…) The large transfer of votes of Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz’s voters to Rafał Trzaskowski is not at all obvious. It is unlikely that almost four times more voters of the PSL leader would support Rafał Trzaskowski than Andrzej Duda. It would be possible among the municipal electorate of the folk party, but not the rural one, which has been leaving for a long time to PiS, and those who stayed with the PSL have no reason to support Rafał Trzaskowski

– further analyzes Stanisław Janecki.

There is no such thing as mechanical transmission of the votes of the electorate of Hołownia, Biedroń or Kosiniak-Kamysz to Rafał Trzaskowski in the second round of elections. The pride of some of his prominent supporters is acting against the president of Warsaw. Before the first round, they easily offended voters of his opponents, considering them as their prey in advance

– comments the columnist.

More about the strength of flows in the latest issue of the Network weekly available on sale from June 29, also in the form E-edition.

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