The future residual values of electric cars are considered by many to be great unknowns. So far, the prices for used Stromer have been good, as there are not really many offers on the market yet. However, according to experts, the boom in e-mobility, which is increasingly driven by government subsidies, is already lowering the resale value.
For new electric cars, there was previously a net subsidy of 6,000 euros in Germany via the “environmental bonus”, half of which came from the federal government and half from the manufacturers. The state share was recently doubled as part of the Corona stimulus package, the e-car premium is now up to 9000 euros. There is no subsidy for incinerators – apart from the temporary broad reduction in VAT. The industry can therefore expect a greater demand for new electric cars in the next few months, while business with used electric cars could become more difficult.
“This is a double-edged sword. Of course we will sell more with the bonus, but we can just cut out 2000 euros for the young used vehicles, ”said Jürgen Sangl der Automobile week. The co-owner of Auto Sangl, a Mitsubishi and Hyundai dealer from Landsberg am Lech, who specializes in electric cars, believes that used vehicles up to three years old can save 1000 to 1500 euros less. For the two-year-olds, he expects around 2,000 euros less, for annual cars even 3,000 euros. His company will try to reduce the new car discounts by 500 to 1000 euros.
Deutsche Automobil Treuhand (DAT) confirms the pressure on the business with used electric cars. “The starting value of the new vehicle will be reduced by over 9,000 euros at the time of the new registration” – such a level will normally only be reached after two to three years, the head of DAT vehicle evaluation Martin Weiss told the Automobile week. The market watchers already had End of 2019 their residual value forecasts were lowered when the first increase in the environmental bonus from 3000 to 6000 euros was decided.
Small cars particularly badly affected
According to Maarten Baljet from the residual value specialist BF Analytics, the higher environmental bonus will have the greatest percentage impact on the residual values of the cheap small cars. For models like that VW e-up! (currently from 21,421.01 euros without funding) or the Smart EQ ForTwo (from 21,386.89 euros) customers would only pay around half of the list price in the next few months. Baljet does not see a direct connection between the estate and the residual value. “The residual value influence is always less than the premium increase.”
According to Baljet, the € 9,000 subsidy for electric cars that will be available until the end of 2021 will have a long-term effect on the market. “You have to assume that the measures will also affect consumer expectations,” he said. Returning to a higher price level would be difficult for the manufacturers.
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