The shape of the coronavirus curve in the United States already appears even in the electoral announcements of the Democrats. There is an initial peak in March and April, as in all countries. Likewise, a progressive decrease in May. Suddenly, the trend is reversed. While in other countries the rate of contagion remains low, in the US it has exploded in the second half of June. The curve is shaped like horns. The causes are various and it is not clear how much each one has. But the main one is that Americans have lost their fear of the virus. They are hanging out, going out, traveling and going to the beach. A few weeks are left to know the consequences of hospitalizations and deaths. While other countries are right or wrong, but at least they know where they are, the United States is on unknown ground.
The United States has confirmed 2.8 million cases of covid-19 since the first positive was discovered in late February. About 130,000 people have died. Every time the Governor of California gives the State’s total figures, he adds: “Obviously, people don’t live in the accumulated, they live somewhere.” The same thing happens with the national figures of the United States. The problems are in specific places. Specifically, in those who got rid of the first impact. The virus is not coming back, it is traveling from the coasts to the interior.
Evolution of confirmed cases
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Source: Johns Hopkins University.
RODRIGO SILVA / EL PAÍS
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Evolution of confirmed cases
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Source: Johns Hopkins University.
RODRIGO SILVA / EL PAÍS
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Evolution of confirmed cases
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Source: Johns Hopkins University.
RODRIGO SILVA / EL PAÍS
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In April, the infections spiked in the northeast. Only New York and New Jersey came to have half positives from across the country. Louisiana, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Michigan and Washington also suffered outbreaks. As of June, infections in these states have decreased between 46% (Connecticut) and 87% (New York) since the peak. Now three-quarters of the new cases are in the rest of the country. The United States has been registering more than 50,000 cases a day for three days in a row. The numbers are between “worrying” and “alarming,” according to the expert who speaks every day. “Disturbing,” said the country’s leading epidemiologist, Dr. Anthony Fauci.
Three States have seen the sharpest increases. Arizona, Florida and Texas had low numbers of infections. They have begun to open their economies and the weekly average of positives has increased between 600% and 900%. In California, the state where the first death from covid-19 was recorded and the first to impose strict quarantine orders, the curve has remained low until its economy has begun to open up.
Arturo Bustamante, professor of Health Policy at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA), explains that the pandemic “has started in the urban areas most connected to the world.” New York, the door of the USA to Europe, and Los Angeles and San Francisco, the door of Asia. “Later, it has moved to secondary cities, like Phoenix, Dallas or Atlanta.” In those places, the fact that the virus came later coincided with the fact that there were never real measures of confinement and, in addition, those States where the spike in infections had already passed have reopened. “Cases have grown much faster because they are behind New York or California in the pandemic.” That is, they have reopened in full swing. In Arizona there is no curve, it is a vertical wall.
States with the most cases
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Source: Johns Hopkins University.
RODRIGO SILVA / EL PAÍS
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Cases accumulated by states
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States with the most cases
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Source: Johns Hopkins University.
RODRIGO SILVA / EL PAÍS
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Cases accumulated by states
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States with the most cases
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Source: Johns Hopkins University.
RODRIGO SILVA / EL PAÍS
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The increase in numbers in June coincides with the relaxation of individual behavior on the Memorial Day bridge on May 25. “The avalanches of new cases occur two to three weeks late. Today’s figures are the image of what happened three weeks ago, ”explains Bustamante. That is why experts are concerned about what this weekend, July 4, may mean in the August figures. Getting together with family and friends for the US National Holiday is essential for Americans. This Friday, the mayor of Los Angeles asked on Twitter that nobody celebrate the party with people who do not live at home. “It is estimated that 66% of new infections are inside the house.”
Bustamante cites several reasons that explain the general increase in infections. First, the relaxation of the confinement rules. “People are more on the street and feel more relaxed about the masks or the distance. There are more parties, gatherings, and funerals. There are a large number of infections among people who feel that the epidemic has passed. ” This argument is broader. People are not only doing home meetings, but nonessential trips that have been postponed for months. In the US at all times it has been possible to leave the house for a walk and travel from one place to another. Even so, “there is a climate of exhaustion from confinement” and the desire to live a normal life. “I still don’t leave my house. I keep buying everything online and I still don’t see anyone, like the first day, ”says Bustamante.
Another factor is the number of tests. “It does not by itself explain the increase in the number of cases, but the ability to detect positives is greater.” That is, before there were many people who were asymptomatic or with mild symptoms who overcame the disease without ever getting tested. The covid-19 test is now “virtually universal.” In early April, 100,000 tests were done daily. Now more than 600,000. “Comparing the number of positives with the beginning of the pandemic is not fair,” says Bustamante. The next three or four weeks are going to be the key to see how these cases evolve. “If they end up in complications and hospitalizations, it will be more critical. Then it is when perhaps it is necessary to revert the measures ”.
In none of these places can the virus still be said to be out of control. But you are on your way to it. One of the data that inspire some optimism is that a good part of the new cases are of a younger profile than what was seen in New York in April. Half of Arizona’s cases are between 20 and 44 years old. The median age of those infected in Florida has dropped from 65 to 35. Young people are becoming infected, which could indicate that only part of the infections will end up in the hospital. In any case, the pressure on the Phoenix and Houston hospitals is already being felt.
There is a political factor to all of this, adds Professor Naredeh Pourat, an expert in health economics at UCLA. The political divide in the country is beginning to take its toll on prevention. “This country is very divided and that is getting into public health, which should be something out of the question. I’m worried”. The most notorious example is that of President Donald Trump, who even today refuses to wear a mask in public. Even the governors of Texas and Arizona, who are hooligans from the president, they wear a mask and have asked the population to do so. In Texas it is mandatory from this week. “There is a strong correlation with the political aspect. The infection has not been managed from the point of view of public health ”, but from the political pose. In Pourat’s opinion, a federal strategy is lacking and the response is suffering from the cacophony between federal, state, regional and local administrations, sometimes with contradictory norms.
While in other countries the covid-19 seems controlled within certain margins, in the United States it enters weeks of uncertainty. The country is a gigantic laboratory in which the world will check what happens when a good part of the population loses its fear of the virus and begins to lead a normal life. The family celebration that defines the country, on July 4, will be the litmus test that defines in which direction the pandemic is going.
Information about the coronavirus
– Here you can follow the last hour on the evolution of the pandemic
– This is how the coronavirus curve evolves in Spain and in each autonomy
– Search engine: The new normality by municipalities
– Questions and answers about coronavirus
– Guide to action against the disease
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