And there is something in between corona. The costs for pensions and health care are increasing mainly due to the aging of the population, but the impact of corona on our economy also means that there will be less money to distribute. Simply put: the pot is getting smaller, so pensions (and the costs of health care due to an aging population) outweigh.
The majority of that 5 percent will therefore be added in the next five years (by 2025). “Obviously, this has to do with the corona crisis and the loss of economic activity between 2019 and 2025. Even in 2025, economic activity is estimated to be even lower than what it would have been without the corona crisis,” says economist Johan Van Gompel.
After 2040 those costs would decrease slightly, but also less than previously thought, although it is of course difficult to estimate so far in time. “This has to do with the assumption of fertility, the average number of children per woman. Last year we assumed that the fertility rate would recover by 2030. Now we assume that the recovery will be less, ”explains Van Gompel.
In the long run, fewer people will be of working age, leading to a lower labor force, lower employment and lower GDP.
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