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20 minutes – GDP decline could reach 9% this year

France

The figures published Wednesday by INSEE are more optimistic than those of the government or the Banque de France, which expect a drop of 11% and 10% respectively.

The decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in France should be limited to 9% in 2020, according to the conjuncture note published by INSEE on Wednesday, while the government expects a collapse of 11% and the Banque de France of 10 %.

After contracting 5.3% in the first quarter and then 17% in the second due to the coronavirus pandemic, GDP would rebound by 19% in the third quarter then by 3% in the fourth, specifies the National Institute of Statistics . This is INSEE’s first growth forecast for 2020 as a whole, as well as for the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Net recovery

“The production outlook is recovering very clearly: the strength of this rebound is due very much to the weakness of the starting point, that is to say economic activity in a period of containment,” according to the note. “However, the order books, especially internationally, remain deemed to be underfilled by industrial companies, which does not augur an immediate return to normal,” tempers the institute.

Thanks to the measures taken during the eight weeks of confinement to preserve the economic fabric and employment, “the first steps of the recovery could have been climbed quite quickly, perhaps more than expected. These are the last ones that are likely to be the most difficult, especially concerning the sectors most affected by the crisis, ”warns INSEE again.

The institute warns that its estimates are subject to “many uncertainties, linked above all to the health situation in France and in the world”.

This is the seventh economic outlook published by INSEE since March 26. The next ones will be published on July 23 and August 27.

(AFP)

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